If you’re found guilty of a crime, it’s a basic principle of Australian law that you have a right to appeal.

But having a right and being able to exercise it are two different things, especially when it comes to fresh evidence casting doubt on your conviction.

In Australia, your ability to challenge a conviction with fresh evidence depends on where you live, because each state and territory has different rules. Too often, it also depends on the resources someone can access, including money and knowledge of the legal system.

Everyone should have the same opportunities to clear their name, so how can we make accessing appeals more equitable?

State by state

Direct pathways to appeal differ between the states and territories.

In all postcodes, it’s difficult to get appeal courts to consider fresh evidence in the first instance.

South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria, Western Australia, Queensland and the ACT allow multiple appeal applications if “fresh and compelling” evidence emerges after your first appeal. Since 2013, six convictions have been quashed this way, including Henry Keogh’s in SA after the state coroner recanted trial evidence.

Tasmania and WA allow subsequent appeals only for serious offences, while SA has no such restriction.

New South Wales and the Northern Territory don’t allow subsequent appeals, so people there have less direct access to the courts if wrongly convicted.

There are, however, indirect ways people can seek an appeal with fresh evidence.

In all states, you can ask the government to refer your case back to an appeal court. For example, the Victorian Attorney-General referred Faruk Orman’s case after evidence emerged about his lawyer’s misconduct. Referral decisions are made in secret and not reviewable.

In the ACT, you can ask the Supreme Court for a judicial inquiry into your conviction. If you get an inquiry, the inquiry officer can refer your case back to the appeal court if they find reasonable doubt. This led to David Eastman’s conviction being quashed.

These inquiries are only available if the issue can’t be properly addressed in an appeal, for example because the time for filing an appeal has lapsed. But, the ACT introduced subsequent appeals in 2024 which have no time limit, so it is unclear whether this pathway is still usable.

In NSW, you can ask the government for an inquiry, but decisions are made in secret and open to political and media influence. This pathway led to Kathleen Folbigg’s acquittal.

You can also ask the NSW Supreme Court for an inquiry or direct referral of your case back to the appeal court. This path is available for all offences and sentences and decisions are public. Since 2014, 59 conviction review applications to the NSW Supreme Court have resulted in one inquiry order and six referrals, with three successful appeals.

The inquiry (currently underway) involves the Croatian Six, convicted in 1981 for conspiracy to bomb sites in Sydney. After many failed attempts, they finally secured an inquiry with fresh evidence casting doubt on police and witnesses’ trial evidence.

These different pathways across the country create an uneven playing field, where some wrongfully convicted people may have more opportunities to clear their name than others.

The right resources

Access to appeals doesn’t just depend on location. It’s also about resources.

To succeed in getting an appeal via any of the above pathways, you need the power to obtain documents and the resources to gather other evidence. You also need the ability to prepare a strong case. That’s before you even get to court.

Judicial inquiries have investigatory powers and resources, but are expensive. For example, the Eastman inquiry cost the ACT government $12 million.

The United Kingdom and New Zealand have independent bodies called Criminal Cases Review Commissions. Scotland has its own version.

These commissions have the power to compel evidence and resources to investigate claims of wrongful conviction at no cost to applicants. They also have the power to refer cases back to the courts. While these commissions don’t refer many cases overall, about 70% of of cases referred in the UK are successful on appeal.

But, even for commissions, a strong initial application is important. In the UK, the Cardiff University Innocence Project engages law students to investigate claims of innocence and prepare applications for claims with merit.

Canada and the United States don’t have criminal case review commissions. Innocence Projects there review claims of innocence and help prepare applications for government or court review.

This is similar to the work of the few innocence clinics in Australia, such as those at RMIT and Griffith universities.

Innocence initiatives around the world work with limited investigatory resources and powers compared with those of a review commission. In the absence of a such a commission in Australia, second appeals are useful, but they are expensive to run, hard to access and don’t address the resource issue.

The free NSW Supreme Court pathway doesn’t address the resource issue either. But it can lead to an inquiry or referral, is open and accountable, and comes with guiding criteria and discretion to make short shrift of baseless applications.

My research suggests free pathways to appeal are important justice mechanisms for the wrongly convicted, but they work best when applicants have legal help to prepare a clear and concise application. Involving law students to help edit applications could make it easier for decision-makers to review cases and help applicants without lawyers get a fairer chance to be heard.

Kylie Lingard, Senior lecturer, University of Wollongong

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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For millennia, humans had one obvious and reliable source of light – the Sun – and we knew the Sun was essential for our survival.

This might be why ancient religions – such as those in Egypt, Greece, the Middle East, India, Asia, and Central and South America – involved Sun worship.

Early religions were also often tied up with healing. Sick people would turn to the shaman, priest or priestess for help.

While ancient peoples used the Sun to heal, this might not be how you think.

Since then, we’ve used light to heal in a number of ways. Some you might recognise today, others sound more like magic.

From warming ointments to sunbaking

There’s not much evidence around today that ancient peoples believed sunlight itself could cure illness. Instead, there’s more evidence they used the warmth of the Sun to heal.

The Ebers Papyrus is an ancient Egyptian medical scroll from around 1500 BCE. It contains a recipe for an ointment to “make the sinews […] flexible”. The ointment was made of wine, onion, soot, fruit and the tree extracts frankincense and myrrh. Once it was applied, the person was “put in sunlight”.

Other recipes, to treat coughs for example, involved putting ingredients in a vessel and letting it stand in sunlight. This is presumably to warm it up and help it infuse more strongly. The same technique is in the medical writings attributed to Greek physician Hippocrates who lived around 450-380 BCE.

The physician Aretaeus, who was active around 150 CE in what is now modern Turkey, wrote that sunlight could cure chronic cases of what he called “lethargy” but we’d recognise today as depression:

Lethargics are to be laid in the light, and exposed to the rays of the Sun (for the disease is gloom); and in a rather warm place, for the cause is a congelation of the innate heat.

Classical Islamic scholar Ibn Sina (980-1037 CE) described the health effects of sunbathing (at a time when we didn’t know about the link to skin cancer). In Book I of The Canon of Medicine he said the hot Sun helped everything from flatulence and asthma to hysteria. He also said the Sun “invigorates the brain” and is beneficial for “clearing the uterus”.

It was sometimes hard to tell science from magic

All the ways of curing described so far depend more on the Sun’s heat rather than its light. But what about curing with light itself?

English scientist Sir Isaac Newton (1642-1727) knew you could “split” sunlight into a rainbow spectrum of colours.

This and many other discoveries radically changed ideas about healing in the next 200 years.

But as new ideas flourished, it was sometimes hard to tell science from magic.

For example, German mystic and visionary Jakob Lorber (1800-1864) believed sunlight was the best cure for pretty much anything. His 1851 book The Healing Power of Sunlight was still in print in 1997.

Public health reformer Florence Nightingale (1820-1910) also believed in the power of sunlight. In her famous book Notes on Nursing, she said of her patients:

second only to their need of fresh air is their need for light […] not only light but direct sunlight.

Nightingale also believed sunlight was the natural enemy of bacteria and viruses. She seems at least partially right. Sunlight can kill some, but not all, bacteria and viruses.

Chromotherapy – a way of healing based on colours and light – emerged in this period. While some of its supporters claim using coloured light for healing dates back to ancient Egypt, it’s hard to find evidence of this now.

Modern chromotherapy owes a lot to the fertile mind of physician Edwin Babbitt (1828-1905) from the United States. Babbitt’s 1878 book The Principles of Light and Color was based on experiments with coloured light and his own visions and clairvoyant insights. It’s still in print.

Babbitt invented a portable stained-glass window called the Chromolume, designed to restore the balance of the body’s natural coloured energy. Sitting for set periods under the coloured lights from the window was said to restore your health.

Indian entrepreneur Dinshah Ghadiali (1873-1966) read about this, moved to the US and invented his own instrument, the Spectro-Chrome, in 1920.

The theory behind the Spectro-Chrome was that the human body was made up of four elements – oxygen (blue), hydrogen (red), nitrogen (green) and carbon (yellow). When these colours were out of balance, it caused sickness.

Some hour-long sessions with the Spectro-Chrome would restore balance and health. By using its green light, for example, you could reportedly aid your pituitary gland, while yellow light helped your digestion.

By 1946 Ghadiali had made around a million dollars from sales of this device in the US.

And today?

While some of these treatments sound bizarre, we now know certain coloured lights treat some illnesses and disorders.

Phototherapy with blue light is used to treat newborn babies with jaundice in hospital. People with seasonal affective disorder (sometimes known as winter depression) can be treated with regular exposure to white or blue light. And ultraviolet light is used to treat skin conditions, such as psoriasis.

Today, light therapy has even found its way into the beauty industry. LED face masks, with celebrity endorsements, promise to fight acne and reduce signs of ageing.

But like all forms of light, exposure to it has both risks and benefits. In the case of these LED face masks, they could disrupt your sleep.

This is the final article in our ‘Light and health’ series, where we look at how light affects our physical and mental health in sometimes surprising ways. Read other articles in the series.

Philippa Martyr, Lecturer, Pharmacology, Women’s Health, School of Biomedical Sciences, The University of Western Australia

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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“So much labour, so much pain, finally it’s a boy.” This tweet captured the relief and exhaustion surrounding Trump’s return to the presidency, likening it to the anticipation of a birth.

For many, it’s a hard-won victory; for others, a moment to reflect on what lies ahead. Comparing the outcome to the birth of a “boy” adds a traditional sentiment to the scene, reflecting both change and enduring values in modern politics.

The American political drama has reached its peak, with Trump defeating Kamala Harris in an election that captivated Indian families. For some Indian seniors avidly following political discussions on WhatsApp, it’s a reason to celebrate, while their children in Silicon Valley nervously ponder their H1-B visa futures.

During his first term, Trump advocated for stronger defence ties with India, securing significant agreements that boosted India’s standing in the Indo-Pacific. His stance on China was aligned with India’s concerns about China’s assertive moves in Asia. With Trump’s return, India may once again benefit from U.S. support against regional threats, particularly from China.

However, Trump’s individualistic foreign policy approach adds an element of uncertainty. While supportive of India’s stance on China, his tendency to change direction on a whim can cause concern, as any alliance or promise could be reversed with a tweet.

Trump’s views on the Russia-Ukraine conflict may bring unexpected advantages for India. With a preference for a more pragmatic approach to Russia, he may reduce pressure on India to distance itself from Moscow. India has balanced its relationships with both Russia and the West, and a less confrontational U.S. stance on Russia could allow India to pursue its own interests with less interference from Washington.

Another area of potential benefit is Trump’s hands-off approach to other countries’ domestic policies. Unlike some past U.S. administrations, which raised concerns over India’s internal matters—such as the revocation of Article 370 in Kashmir—Trump’s presidency was relatively quiet on these issues. For Modi’s government, this could mean fewer external complications on domestic policies, allowing India more freedom in governance without criticism from the U.S.

Yet Trump’s protectionist stance on trade could be a challenge. His criticism of countries he feels “take advantage” of U.S. markets includes India. High tariffs and a focus on reducing trade imbalances could impact sectors like Indian IT, pharmaceuticals, and textiles, all of which depend heavily on American markets. India may face tough negotiations if Trump pushes for terms that prioritise American industries.

Similarly, Trump’s immigration policies present both challenges and hopes for India. In his previous term, he imposed restrictions on H1-B visas, affecting Indian skilled workers and the Indian IT sector. Trump’s return raises questions about the future of these policies, which could again impact Indian professionals aiming to work in the U.S. and the companies relying on their skills.

Trump’s transactional approach to security alliances also brings potential risks. His ambiguous stance on issues like Taiwan’s security has left some Asian allies uneasy. While Trump’s tough talk on China resonates with India’s concerns, any weakening of U.S. support for its regional allies could create a void, possibly emboldening China. India may need to balance a close partnership with the U.S. while also preparing for scenarios where it stands more independently in Asia.

Ultimately, Trump’s return offers both opportunities and risks for India. Strengthened defence ties, fewer interferences on domestic issues, and potential flexibility with Russia are positives, but Trump’s unpredictability, trade protectionism, and immigration restrictions may complicate India’s path. India’s leaders will need to stay agile, ready to adapt to the shifting dynamics of Trump’s policies while maximising gains and mitigating risks.

In a sense, India’s relationship with Trump’s America will be like a typical Indian joint family—complicated, sometimes turbulent, yet held together by shared interests. New Delhi’s strategy could echo the advice of an Indian grandmother: “adjust a little, stand firm a little.” India will need to navigate Trump’s unpredictable policies while ensuring its own priorities remain clear. As they say in Hindi, “Dosti bhi, business bhi” (Friendship as well as business).

In the Modi-Trump 2.0 era, diplomacy will resemble a lively duet, where India must deftly play both offence and defence. As a seasoned diplomat might muse, “In diplomacy, as in cricket, it’s not just about hitting every ball, but knowing which ones to let pass.” For India, the game with Trump has begun anew.

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The Israel-Iran conflict is showing no signs of de-escalation as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched precise strikes deep within Iranian territory, marking a dramatic turning point in the conflict’s intensity and scale.

On the early morning of 26^th October, Israeli jets and drones surged across Iran’s skies, executing a well-coordinated assault that battered Iranian air defences and obliterated vital missile and drone production facilities. This three-hour barrage targeted the heavily fortified Parchin military complex near Tehran, a key site for Iran’s missile programs.

Experts analysing the damage estimate that these strikes have significantly curtailed Iran’s capacity to mass-produce missiles, thus striking a blow not only to Iran’s immediate military capabilities but also to its long-term deterrent strategies against adversaries in the region. For the first time, Israel openly acknowledged hitting Iran, underlining the attack as a direct response to “relentless attacks” orchestrated by Iran and its proxies—a stark shift from Israel’s previous stance of calculated ambiguity.

As West Asia braces for the reverberations of this escalation, the political and humanitarian costs are glaringly apparent, prompting urgent calls for restraint.

India, a key diplomatic force in the conflict, issued a grave statement on 26^th October, cautioning against the spiralling violence that “benefits nobody” and emphasising the untenable plight of innocent hostages and civilians caught in the crossfire. With a clear-eyed concern for regional stability, India warned of the wider implications for peace, subtly reminding the international community of the fragility that underpins the delicate balance in West Asia.

The above statement underscores India’s longstanding diplomatic stance of non-alignment and prudent restraint, echoing its hopes for de-escalation even as the situation teeters on the brink of a more expansive, unpredictable conflict that could plunge the region—and perhaps even the world—deeper into chaos.

After the heinous October 7 terror attack on Israel, the terror group Hamas has sustained some serious blows in the form of its top leadership being assassinated. Whether the Hamas leadership genuinely miscalculated the intensity of Israeli retaliation or they intentionally sacrificed the lives of countless Palestinian civilians to gain sympathy and funding is a question no one can answer.

The reason is that the October 7 terror attack contributed absolutely nothing constructive for the Palestinian people or, as they themselves put it, their cause. Soon, the Lebanese militant group, Hezbollah, too jumped into the conflict and arguably sustained even bigger blows to its foundations.

The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, followed swiftly by the elimination of key operatives like Yahya Sinwar in Gaza and Fatah Sharif in Lebanon, demonstrates that their brazen tactics are leading only to their own undoing. Meanwhile, Hezbollah, with its founder and head Hassan Nasrallah and prominent figures like Ali Karaki and Nabil Kaouk taken out in calculated Israeli strikes, finds its very foundation destabilised.

India’s official position in this complicated scenario is driven both by geo-political pragmatism as well as humanitarian concerns; however, these incidents have given birth to a curious phenomenon within certain sections of Indian intelligentsia: the glorification of terror outfits and their leadership.

This needs to be understood that asking Israel to exercise restraint is completely different from glorifying terrorists on the other side. One can take a humanitarian position for the people of Palestine without branding the likes of Yahya Sinwar as heroes of resistance; in fact, this can be argued that militant outfits like Hamas are the biggest enemies of Palestinian people and their rights. There are documented proofs of Hamas militants using Palestinian civilians as human shields and deliberately constructing their hideouts in heavily populated civilian areas, putting them at risk.

This manipulation is a calculated move, one designed to garner international sympathy by presenting images of devastation without exposing the underlying tactical choices that led to it. The people of Gaza, therefore, become pawns in a propaganda war, their suffering amplified by the very organisation claiming to defend their rights. Moreover, Hamas’ recruitment and indoctrination of minors, training them in militant activities and encouraging martyrdom, further underscores the extent to which the group prioritises its ideological goals over human life.

With significant financial support flowing in from sympathetic nations and organisations, these leaders have settled into lavish residences in places like Qatar and Kuwait, enjoying the fruits of a war economy that thrives on perpetual conflict. Instead of directing resources toward the welfare of the Palestinian people, much of this funding is funnelled into constructing terror tunnels, acquiring weapons, and enhancing military capabilities—priorities that starkly contrast with the urgent needs for education, healthcare, and infrastructure improvements in Gaza.

Given the current circumstances, the remarks from various Indian commentators are profoundly troubling. Journalist Arfa Khanum Sherwani made an attempt at wit with her statement: “Why exactly are Indian fascists celebrating the assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar? Begaani shaadi mein ye Abdullah kyun deewane ho rahe hain?” Beyond being utterly un-amusing, her comment reveals a concerning admiration for a terrorist figure.

Similarly, actress Swara Bhasker posted on X: “I didn’t know anything about Yahya Sinwar till I saw the footage of his last moments & assassination by the Zionist State and now I think he’s a revolutionary hero. Listen to his will, his last words and tell me that you are unmoved. #FreePalestine”

The usual suspect, Arundhati Roy, wrote an extremely troubling piece in Dawn wherein she asserted: “I am expected to equivocate to protect myself, my ‘neutrality’, my intellectual standing. This is the part where I am meant to lapse into moral equivalence and condemn Hamas, the other militant groups in Gaza and their ally Hezbollah, in Lebanon, for killing civilians and taking people hostage. And to condemn the people of Gaza who celebrated the Hamas attack… I refuse to play the condemnation game. Let me make myself clear. I do not tell oppressed people how to resist their oppression or who their allies should be.”

This is not just apologia for terror outfits, it’s their glorification. It is allegedly provoking people to get recruited into terror outfits, kill civilians, take people hostage if they can fit themselves into the very vague definition of “oppressed”.

Several politicians, specifically in Kashmir, also gave extremely troubling statements. PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti called off her political campaign in “solidarity” with ‘martyrs’ of Lebanon and Gaza. “Cancelling my campaign tomorrow in solidarity with the martyrs of Lebanon & Gaza, especially Hassan Nasarullah. We stand with the people of Palestine & Lebanon in this hour of immense grief & exemplary resistance,” she tweeted.

Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, Member of Parliament, Srinagar called Nasrallah a spirit of resistance and expressed complete solidarity with him. Sajad Lone, MLA from Handwara, Kashmir tweeted: “Mourning the supreme martyrdom of Shaheed Syed Hassan Nasrallah. May Allah (SWT) bless his soul & grant us strength to carry forward his legacy against oppressors.”

It is extremely concerning that these observations have been made by individuals on responsible positions; journalists, political commentators and elected representatives that not only influence masses within the national framework but whose words also carry international weight.

We also saw huge masses protesting the killing of Nasrallah in the streets of Lucknow and Kashmir, singing eulogies and expressing condolences for the head of the terror outfit.

Any viable solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict would only begin with the realisation of a two-state framework. Slogans like “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free” may sound revolutionary but, in reality, carry disturbing genocidal and anti-Semitic undertones.

Organisations like Hamas and Hezbollah have shown no interest in peaceful solutions; rather, their agendas hinge on radicalising Palestinian youth for the sake of sustaining their own power and influence. The Palestinian people deserve leaders who put the future of their children first, choosing dialogue over militancy and channelling resources into Gaza’s development instead of fuelling cycles of violence through terror tunnels and weapon stockpiles.

Palestinian leaders like Mahmoud Abbas, Hanan Ashrawi, and the late Saeb Erekat have long championed a peaceful two-state solution as the viable path forward, envisioning a future where Israel and Palestine coexist side by side.

Abbas, as President of the Palestinian Authority, has consistently advocated for diplomacy over violence, while Erekat, one of the most recognised Palestinian negotiators, dedicated his life to the peace process. Figures like Ashrawi and Mustafa Barghouti, both known for their unwavering commitment to nonviolent resistance, have called for international support and human rights as pillars of the Palestinian cause.

Additionally, Salam Fayyad’s pragmatic governance style—focused on state-building and economic stability—offered a blueprint for Palestinian self-sufficiency. Collectively, these leaders embody a vision of Palestinian statehood grounded in diplomacy, rights, and resilience, striving to overcome the barriers of conflict with a focus on long-term coexistence and peace.

Therefore, between Abbas and Ashrawi, who advocate for a peaceful resolution and a two-state solution, and Sinwar and Nasrallah, whose militant ideologies perpetuate violence and conflict, Indian commentators and observers face a clear choice. This decision reflects not only their stance on the Israel-Palestine issue but also their commitment to the broader principles of peace, coexistence, and the protection of human rights.

By aligning with leaders like Abbas and Ashrawi, who prioritize dialogue and diplomacy, commentators can contribute to a narrative that seeks constructive engagement and the betterment of Palestinian lives. Conversely, endorsing figures like Sinwar and Nasrallah only serves to amplify extremism and hinder the prospects for a sustainable peace, further entrenching cycles of violence that have plagued the region for decades.

Contributing Author: Omer Ghazi is a proponent of religious reform and identifies himself as “an Indic Muslim exploring Vedic knowledge and cultural heritage through music”. He extensively writes on geo-politics, history and culture and his book “The Cosmic Dance” is a collection of his poems. When he is not writing columns, he enjoys playing drums and performing raps.

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As Americans vote in one of the most important presidential elections in generations, the country teeters on a knife edge. In the battleground states that will likely decide the result, the polling margins between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are razor thin.

These tiny margins, and the general confusion around American politics today, make it impossible to predict the outcome.

The polls might well be wrong: the electorate may have shifted dramatically since 2020 in ways that will only reveal themselves after the election. The reality is we do not know much of anything for sure, and we may never be able to untangle all of the threads that make up the knot of American politics.

After two assassination attempts on Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden’s dramatic decision to leave the race in August, it is entirely possible this election will throw up more big surprises. But as things stand, there are three broad possibilities for what will happen on Election Day.

All of them throw up their own challenges – for the United States, and for the world.

Possibility 1: the return of Trump

Trump may make history and win back the White House. Only Grover Cleveland has managed to get elected a second time as president (in 1892) after suffering a defeat four years earlier.

If Trump does win, it could be via a similar path to the one he took in 2016 – by once again sundering the “blue wall” and winning the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

This feat will likely mean his campaign tactic of mobilising men has worked.

A Trump victory would represent the culmination of a generational project of the American right. A second Trump administration would be very different from the first – the movement behind Trump is more organised, focused and cognisant of the mistakes of the first Trump White House. It would also face considerably weakened democratic guardrails.

The implementation of Trump’s radical agenda, alongside some or all of the broader far-right agenda detailed in the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, would radically reshape American life and create political and economic chaos.

The rest of the world would have to reorient itself, once again, around Trump.

Possibility 2: Harris makes history

It is entirely possible Harris makes history – not only by beating Trump, but by becoming the first woman and woman of colour to win the US presidency.

Like Trump, if Harris does win, it will likely be through one or more of the battleground states – in particular, Pennsylvania and Georgia.

For Harris, victory will likely come via high turnout by women and voters of colour, particularly African-Americans, or through a combination of turnout by this core Democratic base and swing voters in key states like Pennsylvania.

How Harris wins – and by how much – will be crucial, both to the immediate aftermath of the election and to the shape of a future Harris administration.

A big question: can she win by enough to head off resistance by Trump and the movement behind him? As Australian writer Don Watson has noted, a Harris victory would likely be taken as an existential defeat by the MAGA movement.

How Trump’s supporters react to such a defeat – and how US institutions react to their reaction – will be a critical test for American democracy.

Possibility 3: too close to call

This brings us to the third possibility: the polls are correct, and it’s such a tight race that the margins in the battleground states are in the thousands of votes, or even less.

If it is that close, counting could take days. And there could be recounts after that.

While conspiracies abound, a delay in the result like this would be an entirely predictable and normal outcome. In the United States, there isn’t one system for counting the votes; elections are run by the states on a county-by-county basis, and each state does it differently.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, for example, legally can’t start counting mail-in votes until the polls open on Election Day.

Then there is the supposed “blue shift” or “red mirage” that sometimes occurs on election night.

There are now many ways to vote in the US – in person on Election Day, early voting before Election Day or by mail-in ballot. And the time it takes to count these different ballots can vary. So, it may appear as if one candidate is winning early in the night (say, when in-person votes are counted) only for their opponent to slowly turn the tide (when mail-in ballots are counted).

In the 2020 election, this meant early Trump (“red”) leads were gradually lost to the Biden (“blue”) votes. Researchers found that counties won by Biden counted more slowly, on average, than those won by Trump – hence the so-called “blue shift”.

This is an entirely normal – and legal – phenomenon. In Nevada, for instance, state law permits mail-in ballots to be counted four days after Election Day, so long as they were postmarked by Election Day.

Trump and his surrogates like Steve Bannon, however, have exploited the differing times it takes to count votes to peddle baseless conspiracy theories, undermining Americans’ faith in their own democracy, and to incite unrest.

By baselessly declaring victory in 2020 on the early “red mirage” tallies in key states before all the votes were counted, Trump was able to create what Bannon described as a “firestorm” – one that eventually led to the insurrection of January 6 2021.

This could very well happen again. Bannon, in fact, has just been released from prison after serving four months for contempt of Congress, and could once again be a driving force in any post-election challenges by the Trump campaign.

Trump, meanwhile, lied again this week when he said “these elections have to be, they have to be decided by 9 o’clock, 10 o’clock, 11 o’clock on Tuesday night” – laying the groundwork for further election conspiracies.

Delays are normal – but fraught

Trump has made it very clear he will not accept another election loss. If he does lose, he or his surrogates will attempt to weaponise similar conspiracy theories again. They may also use legal challenges to vote counts as they did in 2020 – both to contest the result and to once again mobilise the MAGA movement.

In the event of close margins, it’s also possible some states will go to a recount.

There are different rules for this in different states. To take one example, if the margin is within 0.5% in Georgia, a candidate can request a recount.

In the 2020 presidential election, Biden narrowly defeated Trump in Georgia by 0.25%, which triggered a full hand recount of the votes. The Associated Press declared Biden the winner of the state more than two weeks after Election Day. A second recount was later reconfirmed by Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.

Again, this is a normal part of the process. It ensures all votes are counted accurately and the result reflects the democratic will of the American people as best as the (admittedly, deeply flawed) system allows.

Such a delay, legitimate as it would be, would elevate the already very real risk of further political violence and instability in the United States.

None of these outcomes is inevitable. 2024 is not 2020; nor is it 2016. What happens next in America depends on the movement and interplay of so many tangled threads, it is impossible to see where old ones end and new ones might begin.

In all of this, only one thing is certain. Whatever the result – and however long it takes to come through – the divisions and conspiracy theories that have destabilised American politics for so long will not be easily or quickly resolved. That knot may well prove impossible to untangle.

Emma Shortis, Adjunct Senior Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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It is with profound sadness and a heavy heart that I share the news of the passing of my dear friend, Prof. Amar Nath Dwivedi, who departed this mortal world on October 29, 2024. Born on January 3, 1943, in the small village of Kothiyahi in Pratapgarh district, Uttar Pradesh, India, he led a life marked by intellectual achievement and dedication.

Prof. Dwivedi pursued his higher education at the University of Allahabad (now Prayagraj). After completing his postgraduate studies, he earned a PhD in English from Meerut University. Following his doctoral work, he taught in Rajasthan and later at Gurukul Kangri University in Haridwar.

Prof. Dwivedi then joined the Department of English at the University of Allahabad, where he taught for over three decades and retired as a senior professor. Later, he served as a Senior Consultant in English at UP Rajarshi Tandon Open University in Prayagraj and also undertook an official assignment in Yemen as Professor and Chairman of the Department of English at Taiz University.

As a teacher, Prof. Dwivedi left a lasting impression on his students. He was widely respected as a literary critic, essayist, and poet of English, garnering recognition from students and scholars in India and abroad.

An author of more than two dozen books and over a hundred research articles, Prof. Dwivedi made commendable contributions to Indian Writing in English and literary theory. His journey, from a rural village to significant academic achievements, reflects his resilience and determination.

Prof. Dwivedi found immense joy in writing poetry, a passion that kept him creatively engaged well into his later years. His poetry collections are the subject of ongoing PhD research, and his work earned admiration from celebrated authors such as Kamala Das, Keki N. Daruwalla, and Tabish Khair.

Poetry, for him, became a bridge between life and death, as he completed and submitted his final poetry collection to the publisher just three hours before his passing. In 2016, he served as a jury member for the Sahitya Akademi Award in English.

Prof. Dwivedi was a steadfast adherent of human values, embodying qualities of humility, simplicity, and sincerity. As his colleague, I was deeply influenced by his gentle and unassuming nature, which reflected the spiritual and human values that defined his character. His passing is an irreplaceable loss to the academic community.

I pray that his soul finds union with the Divine, the Light of lights (“Jyotisaam Jyoti”).

Contributing Author: Prof. O.P. Budholia is a retired Professor of English from Sanchi University of Buddhist-Indic Studies, Madhya Pradesh, India.

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On election eve in the United States, the presidential race is deadlocked. The polls are exceptionally close across the country and in all the swing states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin in the industrial midwest; Nevada and Arizona in the west; and Georgia and North Carolina in the south.

The final New York Times/Siena poll shows Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leading by a very small margin or tied with Republican former President Donald Trump in all the swing states. The exception is Arizona, where Trump leads by a few percentage points.

While there is no clear favourite to win, there are several critical factors that will driving voters’ decisions on Election Day. This is what to watch.

Republicans turning against Trump

Trump’s favourability is stuck around 43% in nationwide polling. In the past two presidential elections, he fell short of taking 50% of the national popular vote. As president, he never achieved over 50% favourability. And he has never topped 50% since leaving office.

This means he has hit a ceiling in his support and is highly unlikely to win the national popular vote on Tuesday.

This also reflects what happened to Trump in the Republican primaries to win the nomination. He dominated the field, defeating Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and several others. But in most of those primaries, 15-20% of Republican voters did not vote for Trump.

Where will these Republican voters ultimately land on Tuesday? Probably half want to vote Republican and will go with Trump. Others will not being able to bring themselves to vote for Harris and will simply not vote for president.

Others will switch their support to Harris. Indeed, there has never been such a swelling of support from members of one party to support the other party’s presidential candidate.

Harris needs those “Republicans for Harris” votes. In addition, she’ll need to replicate the coalition of young voters, voters of colour and women who backed current President Joe Biden against Trump in 2020 in those same swing states and nationally.

Her favourability ratings are higher than Trump, at around 46%. The closer a presidential candidate is to 50% approval ratings, the better their chance of winning the election.

It’s the economy, stupid

At the same time, the country is in a bad mood. There is a classic polling question asked at elections: is the country on the right track, or moving in the wrong direction? Between 60–70% of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track.

That is a signal this election is about change. Historically, that sentiment has not favoured the incumbent in the White House. As Biden’s vice president, Harris is directly facing this headwind.

There are four key issues in this election. The most important is the hip pocket issue: household budgets, cost of living pressures and voters’ concerns about their future economic security.

Since Biden and Harris took office nearly four years ago, the cost of groceries, household items, utilities and services such as insurance have risen between 10–40%. Petrol prices have gone up even more.

Though interest rates have fallen, American households are hurting. When asked who is best to manage the economy, voters in swing states say Trump by a 15-point margin.

The next-biggest issue is immigration. Since Trump first became a presidential candidate in 2015, he has relentlessly pushed the immigration button, declaring the border with Mexico is out of control, with crime and pillage rising in its wake.

The first three years of Biden’s term were also marked by big surges of immigrants crossing the border, though rates have fallen dramatically in 2024.

Voters view Trump as best placed to manage this issue, too, by nearly 15 points.

So, Trump is seen as a more effective leader on the two most important policy issues in this election.

A surge in support from women

Abortion rights and reproductive health services are the third major issue. Many women across America are repelled by the Supreme Court’s decision to take away their long-held constitutional right to an abortion. Now, this policy is decided at the state level. And several conservative Republican states – including Ohio and Kansas – have voted to restore abortion rights.

Harris is seen as the champion of these issues. Multiple polls show voters trust her more than Trump on reproductive rights, by wide margins.

As a result, polling shows Harris is leading Trump with women voters in the swing states, by 15 points or more.

Abortion rights are also on the ballot in two swing states, Nevada and Arizona, which should help Harris in both.

The future of American democracy is the fourth major issue facing voters. According to a new poll, half the country sees Trump as a profound threat to America’s democracy who will wield authoritarian power to enforce his policies and programs.

Harris has pledged to turn the page, heal divisions and get Republicans and Democrats working together again.

In these closing days, Trump continues to make provocative statements with violent imagery. At a rally in Arizona last week, for instance, he again attacked Liz Cheney, the former Republican congresswoman who advocated for the prosecution of Trump over the January 6 insurrection:

She’s a radical war hawk. Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, OK? Let’s see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face.

This may have provided Harris with a final cut-through moment on Trump’s fitness for office in the final days of the campaign. She said in response:

Anyone who wants to be president of the United States who uses that kind of violent rhetoric is clearly disqualified and unqualified to be president. […] Trump is increasingly, however, someone who considers his political opponents the enemy, is permanently out for revenge and is increasingly unstable and unhinged.

So, who is going to win?

Trump’s team sees victory in all the polls. His chief pollster wrote late last week:

President Trump’s position nationally and in every single battleground state is significantly better than it was four years ago.

The polls may also be undercounting the full measure of Trump’s support, as was the case in 2016 and 2020. And the polls may not be reflecting the extent of antipathy towards Harris as a Black and south Asian woman.

Jen O’Malley Dillon, Harris’ campaign director, and who headed the 2020 Biden campaign that defeated Trump, has told her troops, meanwhile, that undecided voters are “gettable”, adding:

We have multiple pathways to victory […] Our folks are voting at levels we need them to vote in order for us to win.

Harris has built a US$1 billion (A$1.5 billion) machine designed to reach voters in the swing states – through personal contact. This machine made three million phone calls and door knocks on homes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin alone on Saturday. If this machine delivers, it could be the boost Harris needs on election night.

Harris’ campaign also signalled over the weekend that late-deciding voters, and especially women, are breaking their way by double digits. There is a sense among Democrats that Harris is now peaking as the campaign concludes.

The final analysis

If Harris wins, it will be because she has successfully sealed the deal with those voters and made the election a referendum on Trump – that on balance the country has had enough of him after eight years. It also means her ground game delivered the votes.

If Trump wins, it will mean voters trusted him to manage inflation and the cost-of-living squeeze on households, as well as what they see as out-of-control immigration and crime. These messages would also have been further embellished by unease about Harris, a Black and south Asian woman, as president.

Bruce Wolpe, Non-resident Senior Fellow, United States Study Centre, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Apps such as Google Maps, Apple Maps and Waze can tell drivers when they are approaching speed cameras or random breath testing stations. Countries such as Germany, France and Switzerland have banned apps from displaying these enforcement locations.

But what effect are these apps having in Australia – are they helping drivers break road rules?

Our new paper, published in the journal Safety Science, examined this question.

We found this technology can, in some cases, contribute to people thinking they are invincible on the roads. However, we also found they can sometimes help people drive more safely.

Being made aware of enforcement can help road safety

We conducted focus groups and interviews with a total of 58 drivers from Queensland, to understand how the use of this technology influences perceptions of being caught for breaking road rules.

One driver told us:

If I know it’s coming up, I’ll put my phone down. If I was, say, texting or checking something, but then like once a good few 100 metres away, I sort of pick it up again, depending though.

Another said:

It sort of depends where I am driving, I guess. Like, if I am driving on a country road and there is a speed camera there I would probably slow down for the speed camera and then sort of speed up again once I am sort of past that; it sort of depends on the circumstances.

We also found that, for some people, being made aware of enforcement locations can help drivers better regulate their speed. This helped them comply with road rules more consistently.

Waze also shows the speed limit in the area, which further assisted some drivers to stick to the speed limit. One driver told us:

I’m a bit careful if I just look at the speedo and just double check that I’m on the right amount of speed.

Another said:

It just gives you a warning like, ‘OK, you need to check your speed.’ Just to double-check you’re going on the right speed perhaps or when it’s a camera coming up.

Concerning behaviours

Concerningly, we also found some drivers who use these apps are looking at and touching their screens more than they otherwise would. This can distract drivers and increase their risk of crashing.

One driver told us they post traffic updates on the app they use while driving, “which I know is wrong.”

Another said:

Just hit the button on the phone. Just two steps after I go past the camera.

Another driver told us:

It’s so helpful […] Especially if it’s, say, late night and I’m coming home from a party, and I don’t want to end up getting arrested.

One driver said:

I probably feel slightly more invincible, which is probably not a good thing.

When asked why these apps are used, one driver said:

I guess the drug and the drink-driving.

Apps can help and hinder road safety

We know breaking road rules significantly contributes to crashes and road fatalities, with deaths on Australian roads continuing to increase over time.

On the one hand, when drivers are aware of enforcement measures like cameras and police, they are more likely to stop breaking the rules in those areas. That’s particularly true for behaviours such as speeding and using a phone while driving, we found.

Using apps that flag where cameras and police are located also means drivers would be more exposed to enforcement activities than they otherwise would be on a normal drive.

On the other hand, our results suggest some drivers are using these applications to break road rules more often in places where they think they won’t be caught.

These apps are also not always completely accurate.

For instance, even though Waze can display some police operation locations such as roadside breath testing, it can’t capture all on-road police activities. Further, camera locations are not always up to date or accurate.

Weighing benefits against risks

While these apps do have some benefits, it’s important to weigh these against the risks.

It’s also important to recognise traffic enforcement isn’t just there to make you comply with road rules at a specific point; it is meant to remind you of the constant risk of being caught and to encourage consistent rule compliance.

The goal is to ensure that drivers are following the traffic rules across the entire network, not just in isolated spots.

With road fatalities at some of the highest rates we’ve seen in recent years, we need everyone to work together to stop more preventable deaths and injuries.

Verity Truelove, Senior Research Fellow in Road Safety Research, University of the Sunshine Coast; Michelle Nicolls, PhD Candidate, University of the Sunshine Coast, and Oscar Oviedo-Trespalacios, A/Professor Responsible Risk Management, Delft University of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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On July 13, shortly after Donald Trump was targeted by an assassination attempt, Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of X (formerly Twitter), tweeted to his more than 200 million followers:

I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery.

Musk’s efforts to influence who wins next week’s US presidential election have continued. For example, over the past three months, he has donated more than US$100 million to a political action committee called America PAC that’s promoting Trump.

But our new research (currently available in preprint form) indicates Musk may be wielding influence in other more subtle ways as well. However, the platform’s increasing opacity to researchers makes this difficult to say for certain.

Shortly after Musk endorsed Trump’s presidential campaign, there was a statistically anomalous boost in engagement with his X account. Suddenly, his posts were getting much higher views, retweets and likes in comparison to other prominent political accounts on the platform.

This raises suspicions as to whether Musk has tweaked the platform’s algorithm to increase the reach of his posts in advance of the US presidential election. It also demonstrates the problems with how social media platforms like X are currently regulated around the world.

Not the first time

Musk has history when it comes to tweaking X’s algorithms so his own content reaches more people.

Last year, he reportedly mobilised a team of around 80 engineers to algorithmically boost his posts. This came after his tweet supporting the Philadelphia Eagles during the Super Bowl was outperformed by a similar one from President Joe Biden. Musk seemed to confirm this happened, posting a picture depicting one woman labelled “Elon’s tweets” forcibly bottle feeding another woman labelled “Twitter”.

To see whether Musk has done this again in the leadup to the US election, we compared Musk’s engagement metrics – such as the number of views, retweets and likes – with a set of other prominent political accounts on the social media platform. The data spans the period from January 1 2024 to October 25 2024.

Other political accounts that served as a basis of comparison include those of right-wing commentators Jack Posobiec, Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump Jr. Our study also examined accounts at the other end of the political spectrum, including those of US Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, US Senator Bernie Sanders and Vice-President Kamala Harris.

A sudden and significant increase

Since July, engagement with Musk’s X account has seen a sudden and significant increase.

The view counts for his posts increased by 138%, retweets by 238%, and likes by 186%.

In contrast, other prominent political accounts on X saw more moderate increases: 57% in view counts, 152% in retweets, and 130% in likes.

This suggests that while engagement went up for all accounts after July, Musk’s metrics saw a particularly large boost, particularly in retweets and likes.

The research further found that since July, other conservative and right-wing X accounts have performed better in terms of visibility of posts compared to progressive and left-wing accounts.

The Conversation sought comment from X about the research, but did not receive a reply before deadline.

Without backstage access to the workings of the company, it is impossible to know for sure whether changes to its curation system are boosting its owner’s posts. The platform has limited the access it provides to researchers since Musk took over. This means there are restrictions on the amount of data we were able to collect for this study.

However, the Washington Post recently found that tweets from Republicans are far more likely to go viral, receiving billions more views than those from Democrats. Similarly, an investigation by the Wall Street Journal revealed that new users to the platform “are being blanketed with political content” that disproportionately favours Trump.

Since Musk’s purchase of the platform, it has become more congenial to figures on the right, including people who were previously banned for spreading harmful and false information.

The myth of neutrality

The findings raise the question of the extent to which Musk’s influential social media platform is reinforcing its owner’s political agenda.

Musk, whose businesses have extensive government contracts, has made a public and financial spectacle of his unabashed support of Trump. The billionaire tech tycoon is reportedly Trump’s second-biggest financial donor. He also promoted Trump in a glitchy live interview on X and authored a stream of tweets promoting Trump’s campaign.

Musk is also handing out $1 million a day to selected registered voters. This plan (which has met with questions over its legality) apparently aims to boost voter registration among sympathisers in swing states.

Musk’s actions have torpedoed the fantasy that social media platforms such as X are neutral. Given he has previously tweaked X’s algorithm to amplify the reach of his posts, it would be surprising if he were not tilting the platform in favour of Trump, whom he believes is “the path to prosperity”.

For too long, social media platforms have enjoyed immunity for the information they selectively inject into users’ feeds. It’s time for governments to reconsider their approach to regulating the oligopolistic power over our information environment wielded by a handful of tech billionaires.

Timothy Graham, Associate Professor in Digital Media, Queensland University of Technology and Mark Andrejevic, Professor, School of Media, Film, and Journalism, Monash University, Monash University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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People repaying HELP student debts would get cost-of-living relief under changes to repayment arrangements to be announced by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Sunday.

The minimum threshold for repayments to start would be lifted by more than $10,000 a year, from about $54,000 in 2024-25 to $67.000 in 2025-26. This threshold would be indexed so it always remained about 75% of average graduate earnings.

The government would also move to a marginal repayment system for HELP debts. That would in the short term be to the advantage of people on incomes just above the threshold.

This change, which does not alter the overall amount of the person’s debt, was recommended by Bruce Chapman, the academic who was a designer of the original HECS scheme in the 1980s. Chapman undertook work for the universities accord released by Education Minister Jason Clare.

The accord recommended “reducing the financial burden of repayment on low-income earners and limiting disincentives to work additional hours by moving to a system of HELP repayment based on marginal rates”.

In a Sunday speech, Albanese will say the changes will boost take home pay for one million young Australians.

The average HELP debt holder would pay about $680 less annually in their repayments.

A university graduate earning $70,000 would have their minimum repayments reduced by $1,300. A graduate on $80,000 would receive a cut of $850.

The targeted relief would apply to all graduates earning up to $180,000 annually.

The changes extend to student loans for vocational education.

The government plans to bring in legislation for the changes next year, but it is not clear whether this will be before or after the election, which must be held by May.

The cost over the forward estimates would be about $300 million.

Albanese said:“We will make it easier for young Australians to save in the future and we are going to make the system better and fairer as well. This is good for cost of living. Good for intergenerational fairness. Good for building Australia’s future.”

This is the government’s second recent round of changes to the HELP scheme .

In changes to indexation in this year’s budget the government announced it would cut the student debt of more than three million people, wiping more than $3 billion from what people owe.

It capped the HELP indexation rate to be the lower of either the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or the Wages Price Index (WPI), backdated from June 1 last year. Indexation had been based on the CPI. Legislation for the budget change is currently before the parliament.

Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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The mental health benefits of exercise for adults are well known, easing depression and reducing anxiety.

Now, emerging research highlights its rising importance for children’s wellbeing. Staying active could be key to safeguarding and enhancing young people’s mental health.

Mood-boosting benefits

One in seven adolescents worldwide has a mental illness. As a result, parents and health-care providers are increasingly seeking effective prevention strategies.

Evidence is accumulating to suggest one surprisingly simple approach: physical fitness.

One recent study reveals even small improvements in fitness were linked to improved teen mental health. When adolescents improved their fitness by just 30 seconds on a running test, their risk of developing anxiety, depression, and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) dropped by 7-8%.

This suggests something as straightforward as regular exercise could play a crucial role in protecting young people’s mental wellbeing.

For parents and health professionals looking to support adolescent mental health, encouraging participation in team sports could also be an especially effective strategy.

A study of more than 17,000 teenagers revealed a powerful link between sports and mental health: teens who participated in sports clubs were 60% less likely to experience depression compared to inactive kids.

This suggests team sports offer a unique environment for teens’ mental wellbeing, combining physical activity, social connection and structured routines.

Active kids do better in the classroom

Physical activity can also sharpen kids’ thinking and improve school performance: being active is associated with improvements in concentration, decision-making abilities, attention and academic performance.

Studies have also found positive links between physical activity and performance in maths and reading skills.

Even short ten-minute bouts of activity can have immediate positive effects on classroom performance.

Adding more physical activity to the school day — rather than cutting it for academic subjects — can not only boost students’ academic performance but also enhance their overall health and wellbeing.

Getting kids started with fitness and physical activity delivers myriad benefits.

Starting early: when and how

Age considerations

While there’s no one-size-fits-all approach, experts generally agree it’s never too early to encourage physical activity.

The World Health Organisation recommends children aged 3-4 should engage in at least 180 minutes of physical activity daily, with at least 60 minutes being moderate to vigorous intensity: activities that cause kids to huff and puff, such as running or playing sports.

For school-age children (five to 17 years), the recommendation is at least 60 minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity daily, with activities that strengthen muscles and bones at least three times a week.

Getting started

The key to introducing fitness to children is to make it fun and age-appropriate. Here are some strategies:

1. Incorporate play: for younger children, focus on active play rather than structured exercise. Activities such as tag, hide-and-seek, or obstacle courses can be both fun and physically demanding.
2. Explore various activities: expose children to different sports and activities to help them find what they enjoy. This could include team sports, dance, martial arts, or swimming. Consider activities that are culturally relevant or significant to your family, as this can enhance their sense of belonging and interest.
3. Lead by example: children often mimic their parents’ behaviours, observing their actions. By being active yourself, you not only set a positive example but also encourage your children to do the same.
4. Make it a family affair: encourage physical activity by planning active family outings like hikes, bike rides, or trips to the park to foster a love of exercise in a fun and engaging way.
5. Limit screen time: Encourage outdoor play and physical activities as alternatives to sedentary screen time, fostering a healthier lifestyle and promoting wellbeing.

Potential risks and how to mitigate them

While the benefits of fitness for children are clear, it’s important to approach it safely. Some potential risks include:

1. Injuries from overexertion: children eager to push their limits can suffer from overuse injuries, such as sprains or strains. Encourage a variety of physical activities to prevent overuse injuries. Ensure adequate rest during training and competition, and promote proper a warm-up and cool-down.
2. Heat-related illness: children exercising in hot weather are at risk of heat exhaustion, with symptoms including dizziness and nausea. Emphasise hydration before, during and after exercise. Schedule activities during cooler times and provide shaded areas for breaks, teaching kids to recognise signs of overheating.
3. Improper technique and equipment: using incorrect form or inappropriate equipment can result in injuries and impede development. It’s essential to provide proper instruction, ensure equipment is size-appropriate, and supervise children during exercise. Programs should be designed to be safe and inclusive, accommodating children with disabilities, ensuring everyone can participate meaningfully without barriers.
4. Burnout: excessive exercise or pressure to perform can cause physical and mental burnout. This can lead to a loss of interest. To prevent burnout, it is important stick to national and international activity recommendations, ensure adequate rest, and encourage a balance between structured exercise and free play.

A love for movement and activity

The evidence is clear: fit kids are happier, healthier, and better equipped to handle life’s challenges.

By introducing fitness early and in an engaging, age-appropriate manner, we can set children on a path to lifelong physical and mental wellbeing.

Remember, the goal is to foster a love for movement and activity that will serve children well into adulthood.

Ben Singh, Research fellow, Allied Health & Human Performance, University of South Australia and Grace McKeon, Postdoctoral research fellow, UNSW Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Lower petrol prices and an electricity rebate have contributed to a further fall in the quarterly measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index.

The rate in the September quarter dropped to 2.8%, putting it for the first time within the Reserve Bank’s target range of two-point-something since the March quarter of 2020.

The fall was broadly in keeping with market expectations, and keeps low the likelihood of an interest rate cut this year. The next Reserve Bank meeting is scheduled for Tuesday.

The bank pays more attention to the long-running quarterly measure of the CPI than the more volatile monthly version which already dropped into its target range in August.

The monthly measure dropped further, to 2.1%, in September.

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The quarterly CPI is also more important because it is included in all sorts of workplace and other contracts and indexation formulas.

The main reason for the fall in inflation was the electricity rebates announced in the federal budget and by some states.

Also helping were the falls in petrol prices, mainly reflecting declines in global oil prices. Cheaper or free public transport in Brisbane, Canberra, Hobart and Darwin also contributed.

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Preventing a larger fall were the continuing strong growth in insurance costs and rent. The rise in insurance costs reflects a series of extreme weather events such as bushfires and floods. It is a way in which climate change is exacerbating inflation.

Contrary to what many people think, the increase in rents is not due to landlords passing on higher interest rates. Landlords may want to do this but they are only able if vacancy rates are low, otherwise tenants just move elsewhere.

History shows it is low vacancy rates that drive up rent regardless of the level of interest rates. The inability of landlords to pass on interest rate increases has been confirmed by a study just published by the Reserve Bank using tax return data.

It showed that only three cents of every dollar in extra interest costs is passed on.

The fall in inflation to a rate significantly below the 4% at which wages are increasing means that the cost of living crisis is abating, although not yet over.

The dramatically lower inflation rate puts Australia in a comparable position to the United States, whose inflation rate is 2.4%, the United Kingdom, whose inflation rate is 1.7% and New Zealand where it is 2.2%.

The US, UK and New Zealand all have inflation targets (or midpoints) of 2%, so inflation is now only slightly above the target in the US and New Zealand. It is actually below it in the UK. In response all three have cut their key policy interest rates.

Yet it is unlikely that the Reserve Bank will follow their lead until next year, despite growing pressure.

One reason is that, even after their cuts, interest rates in our three peers are still higher than in Australia, at around 4.75% to 5%.

But more importantly, the Bank has stressed recently that it pays more attention to the “underlying” rate of inflation, which looks through temporary measures such as the electricity subsidies. The Bank will only cut interest rates when they are “confident that inflation was moving sustainably towards the target range”.

The bank’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, the so-called trimmed mean, has also fallen.

But at 3.5%, it is still above the target. A positive aspect is that it has reached 3.5% ahead of the Bank’s most recent forecast which had 3.5% only being reached by the end of 2024.

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Monetary policy, however, has in Milton Friedman’s famous words “long and variable lags”.

As the then future governor Glenn Stevens remarked back in 1999, “the long lags associated with the full impact of monetary policy changes mean that policy changes today must be made with a view not just to what is happening now, but what is likely to be happening in a year’s time and even beyond then”.

In other words we want to drive by looking ahead rather than just at the rear view mirror. The Bank is like a footballer who needs to head to where the ball will be rather than where it is now.

There is therefore a risk that if the Reserve Bank keeps interest rates high until inflation reaches the middle of the target, it will be too late to prevent the economy slowing too much and inflation will undershoot the target. This would likely be associated with unnecessarily high unemployment.

That is why the Reserve Bank board faces a difficult balancing act in taking its decisions.

John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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The primary impetus for much of the contemporary focus on the relationship between Australia’s aid and its wider geopolitical goals has been the perceived increase in the use of various forms of development finance by China as a key part of Beijing’s own influence efforts, particularly those directed toward Australia’s Pacific Island Country neighbours. Indeed, in a justification of the Australian government’s own approach, Foreign Minister Penny Wong has explicitly cited the example of China’s statecraft, including in relation to aid:

China understands national interest as being advanced by favourable outcomes, by reducing the possibility of unfavourable outcomes — and by reducing the space for disagreement or dissent.

This understanding is coordinated through its persistent statecraft. A great power like China uses every tool at its disposal to maximise its own resilience and influence — its domestic industry policy; its massive international investment in infrastructure, diplomacy, and military capability; access to its markets.

This statecraft illustrates the challenge for middle powers, like us and our partners in Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Yet we need not waste energy with shock or outrage at China seeking to maximise its advantage. Instead, we channel our energy in pressing for our own advantage.

According to AidData, the most comprehensive global aid database, over the last decade Beijing has emerged as the world’s single largest source of development finance, with over 21,000 individual projects in 165 low- and middle-income countries valued at an estimated US$1.34 trillion. Since 2013, this finance has mainly come in the form of concessional loans and export credits for infrastructure projects.

For many experts and commentators, these investments represent a key component of China’s integrated statecraft, “backed by a comprehensive, well resourced, and disciplined operational strategy” focused on building Beijing’s “influence and leverage” in the global South. Others have highlighted the infrastructure and other aid investments associated with programs like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as a key element of China’s “developmentalist” foreign policy which aims to “present the country as a leader of economic development on the global stage”. Critics of the US and its Western allies have welcomed China’s disruption of so-called “neo-liberal” development models, arguing that Beijing’s aid provides the global South with more choice and more leverage.

According to other assessments, analyses that ascribe uniform motivations, whether malign or benign, to China’s aid have tended to overstate the degree of coordination in Beijing’s version of economic statecraft. This is due the variety of bureaucratic agencies, state-owned companies and banks, and semi-commercial entities involved in the delivery of China’s foreign aid. These actors have sometimes pursued agendas independent of, and sometimes contrary to, Beijing’s priorities and preferences. Empirical studies have highlighted domestic imperatives such as preserving internal political stability and absorbing excess economic capacity, rather than geopolitical goals, as the primary drivers of the allocation of China’s foreign aid. The core challenge remains ascribing intentions to a country “whose government agencies and firms often lack transparency and whose development strategy prescribes the co-presence of a complex set of state and non-state actors abroad”.

To the extent that China’s development finance can be said to reflect a deliberate and coherent strategy aimed at advancing its “influence” in the global South, the results appear to have been mixed. A 2022 assessment published by the influential US think tank the RAND Corporation concludes that notwithstanding Beijing’s substantial investment in infrastructure and technology projects in the global South, “the short-term appeal of China’s approach to developing countries does not necessarily generate longer-term positive [public] perceptions of China …”.  Instead, “many governments have begun to reassess the terms of their arrangements with China and, in some cases, to express new ill-will toward China”. A 2023 multi-region study of sentiment toward the BRI among 148 countries found that although average sentiment was positive, attitudes towards the BRI had deteriorated between 2017 and 2021/22. Among 27 surveyed countries in Central, South and Southeast Asia, public sentiment towards the BRI improved in only three: Brunei, Mongolia, and Cambodia.

Exploring these kinds of results through several case studies in a working paper, Audrye Wong has argued that the influence effects of China’s “subversive carrots” — forms of economic inducement designed to avoid political processes and expectations about appropriate political behaviour in recipient states — is mediated by domestic political institutions in these states. Comparing recipient elites’ responses to China’s economic statecraft in a low public accountability state (Cambodia), a higher public accountability state (the Philippines) and a “transition state” (pre-coup Myanmar), she argues that how responsive these elites are to their citizenry and how constrained they are by domestic institutions ultimately determines the effectiveness of Beijing’s external economic inducements in terms of their influence on behaviour.

Where public accountability is higher, this impedes the utility of such methods as it is harder for leaders to avoid domestic scrutiny and/or public backlash over the terms of inducements. Audrye Wong concludes that, “despite the apparent ease and rapidity at which China has attempted to buy over political leaders with large-scale investment and infrastructure projects … its strategy of subversive carrots is not as uniformly successful as commonly assumed … [and] the level of public accountability in target countries can facilitate or constrain the effectiveness of subversive carrots”. Similarly, Courtney Fung et al. draw from another set of country case studies to argue that “variations across domestic institutions can help explain differences in receptivity or resistance toward Chinese influence”.

Such findings pose something of a paradox for Western aid donors. This is because they suggest a trade-off between aid goals like democracy promotion and improved governance — whether pursued as objectives in their own right, or as part of broader efforts to constrain China’s influence — and their own influence goals, which are also likely to be constrained by more accountable institutions in recipient countries.

Early empirical research suggests that this kind of analytic lens is relevant to the Pacific. This is a region that comprises countries with largely open — albeit in some cases small and often fragile ­– domestic political institutions and one in which China has increased its aid effort over the last decade.

While China appears to have been successful in using aid and other economic inducements to help persuade several Pacific island countries (PICs) to shift their diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China in recent years, its ability to extract more “expensive” policy concessions has been limited. In 2022, China failed in what was reported as a concerted and sustained attempt to secure a region-wide policing and security deal with the Pacific Islands Forum countries. The announcement of a non-public bilateral security and policing agreement between China and Solomon Islands earlier that year became the focus of a subsequent domestic political backlash against the government of former Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare. The newly elected government of Fiji downgraded its own policing cooperation with China in the wake of the Solomon Islands agreement. These examples may reflect China’s inability to date to secure a wider “social licence” from local communities in PICs, despite the substantial aid effort it has directed at elites. Some Pacific elites have also proven adept at instrumentalising China’s aid narratives to suit their own domestic and foreign policy goals. The fact that Beijing’s aid effort in the Pacific peaked in monetary terms in the mid-2010s and has declined in recent years may reflect not only changing economic conditions within China. It may also indicate a reduced appetite on the part of Pacific elites to take on large Chinese-funded projects due to concerns about increased domestic backlash and unsustainable debt.

Even when it comes to more autocratic political settings, China has sometimes struggled to translate development and financial support into alignment with its foreign policy preferences. For example, China is one of the few providers of bilateral aid (primarily in form of food aid and energy supplies), as well as foreign direct investment and trade, to totalitarian North Korea. The contemporary relationship between Beijing and Pyongyang has been described, however, by one set of experts as one characterised by “growing investments and diminishing returns”. Despite the volume of Chinese aid provided to North Korea over the decades, these experts point specifically to Beijing’s inability to achieve one of its primary foreign goals – curbing Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.

In other cases, it is the weakness of potential client states that poses the biggest constraint to China’s influence. In the case of Pakistan — a country which has accepted a large amount of Chinese infrastructure finance under the framework of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) — successive economic crises and political violence in regions that are part of the CPEC have “tied China irrevocably into Pakistan’s complicated, and sometimes hostile, political landscape”. As a result, “[China’s] centralising visions could not be simply imposed on a receptive (or captive) periphery but [has] required difficult negotiations with local interests”. This has, in turn, “exert[ed] a transformative pressure back on China itself” when it comes to the costs, threats and risks generated by the unintended effects of its economic statecraft. This suggests that attempts to link aid with policy change are not unidirectional and can affect donors as well as recipients. Following Myanmar’s reversion to military rule in 2021, China — one of the dictatorship’s few remaining external benefactors — has also struggled to exert influence over the fledging State Administration Council junta as lawlessness and conflict threaten key Chinese infrastructure investments and criminal gangs further embed themselves in the sensitive China-Myanmar border regions.

China’s use of various types of debt instruments as a primary modality through which it delivers its development finance has been a particular source of contention with some Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) recipients. While charges from the West of “debt trap diplomacy” have been largely discredited as overstated, the opacity of China’s BRI lending has generated backlash from recipient elites and publics in several high-profile cases, including in Sri Lanka and Malaysia. In the case of Africa, “the indebtedness generated by BRI loans coupled with their emphasis on facilitating infrastructural changes for outflow of primary commodities has raised memories of colonialism for many African observers”. In these and other cases, the use of debt instruments has generated new sources of conflict between China and potential client states. Along with the growing risks to China’s economy and state-owned banks from the moral hazard associated with unsustainable BRI loans, this has resulted in Beijing significantly reducing its global infrastructure lending and re-orienting its focus toward so-called “small and beautiful” projects and multilateral aid.

These examples suggest that, as well as domestic institutions, the type of finance provided may itself have an independent effect on the extent to which bilateral donors are able to use aid to achieve wider foreign policy goals, including as a result of unintended effects. That is, the mere coercive potential of debt, whether realised or perceived, may itself invite a backlash on the part of recipient elites and/or publics against donors, regardless of the latter’s motives.

This is relevant to Australia given its newfound position as a leading source of infrastructure lending to the Pacific — a position that could generate unintended effects in terms of Canberra’s own regional relationships, particularly given the increased level of indebtedness of several PICs and the risk of a lack of attention to project quality and fiscal sustainability relative to geopolitical objectives. This highlights the potential perils of unsophisticated narratives regarding the causes and consequences of China’s “economic statecraft” and the need to engage with the kinds of research canvassed here.

Disclosure: This research was undertaken with the support of the Gates Foundation. The views are those of the author only.

This article was first published in the Australian National University’s DevpolicyBlog and has been republished here with the kind permission of the editor(s). The Blog is run out of the Development Policy Centre housed in the Crawford School of Public Policy in the ANU College of Asia and the Pacific at The Australian National University.

Contributing Author: Cameron Hill is Senior Research Officer at the Development Policy Centre. He has previously worked with DFAT, the Parliamentary Library and ACFID.

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A major highlight at the National Security Defence Review validation workshop in Suva this week was the panel discussion on “Building social cohesion in fractured societies”. It was significant because while Fiji needs such dialogues, they have been rare.

The Fiji National Security & Defence Review report released by the Ministry of Home Affairs and Immigration this week mentions social cohesion as the third key element of Fiji’s national security requirements.

The discussion was chaired by the University of the South Pacific’s associate professor in Pacific journalism, Dr Shailendra Singh, a member of the editorial board of the National Security Defence Review (NSDR).

The panelists included individuals involved directly or indirectly in social cohesion work:  Retired colonel Dr Jone Baledrokadroka, a peacebuilding and social cohesion consultant with United Nations Development Programme, Fiji; Vani Catanasiga, Fiji Council of Social Services executive director; Nilesh Lal, Dialogue Fiji executive director; and Pastor Josefa Lauvanua, a member of the Melanesian Community.

Commissioned by the Home Affairs Minister, Pio Tikoduadua, the NSDR’s independent lead is retired Fiji Military Forces lieutenant colonel Jim Sanday. The editorial board is chaired by Professor Satish Chand, from the University of New South Wales and the Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra.

Make peace at home first

In his opening remarks panel chair Dr Singh pointed out that Fiji was a fractured society with an incredibly damaging coup culture. Yet, unlike other multiethnic countries like Singapore and Malaysia, little effort had been made to understand, let alone address arguably our most significant problem—a deficit in social cohesion.

Dr Singh stated that geopolitics often takes precedence, despite internal conflict being our most immediate risk. There was also a lot of focus on economic development, but Fiji’s experience showed that without social cohesion, there could be no sustainable development, which could be destroyed overnight by communal conflict.

That Fiji is still struggling with social cohesion more than 50 years after independence highlights the complexity of the issue, noted Dr Singh. However, he questioned whether Fiji had made enough effort to truly address it.

He welcomed current government  initiatives, such as the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, the NSDR, and the Multi-Ethnic Affairs & Sugar Industry Ministry’s social cohesion projects.

He praised the leadership by Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka, Home Affairs Minister Tikoduadua and  Multi-Ethnic Affairs Minister Charan Jeath Singh.

The Prime Minister’s “Ocean of Peace” had resonated with regional leaders, said Dr Singh. However,  before the wider region,  Fiji needed to get its own house in order,  and make peace at home.

That is why social cohesion in Fiji  not only has national, but regional ramifications, concluded Dr Singh.

Rebuilding and peacebuilding

Dr Baledrokadroka stated that social cohesion was important to hold together the fabric of any society.

Sharing his work on social cohesion in the Pacific, Dr Baledrodroka said it was not just a challenge in Fiji, but the region.

He emphasised the importance of inclusivity to ensure the success of initiatives or policies leading to peacebuilding.

He highlighted the launch of the United Nations Social Cohesion Programme by PM Rabuka in April to promote peace and unity in Fiji and the Pacific, addressing challenges like climate change and economic vulnerability. 

As part of the initiative, workshops have been held from June to September, including pre-dialogue workshops with the Sugar Cane Growers Council, Indo-Fijian society representatives and civil society organisations.

Dr Baledrokadroka shared that the UNDP’s national validation workshop in November would be the culmination of the work that was being carried out by the programme since its launch.

Civil society views on social cohesion

Ms Catanasiga posited that education is essential in fostering social cohesion but it should go beyond Western ideals of cooperation and harmony and instead reflect the diverse realities and histories of Fiji’s people.

Social cohesion must be woven into our educational curricula in ways that resonate with the lived experiences of all Fijians.

Ms Catanasiga added that the root causes that have contributed to the fractures in our society must first be recognised in social cohesion discourse.

She highlighted the cycle of trauma that continued to hold people in Fiji hostage, adding that there had not been enough intentional focus on healing—neither in governance nor in development frameworks.

The trauma, she said, stems from various historical and social factors: colonisation, decolonisation and the manner in which both occurred, the repeated coups, and the way development has been unevenly delivered.

A national effort to build social cohesion must begin at the community level, using a bottom-up approach to tap into our communities —the very places where social cohesion is often alive and well, despite broader societal fractures.

Government, she said, can play a key role by partnering with stakeholders who have demonstrated transformative work in unity and cohesion.

The road to social cohesion will require a deep commitment to understanding our past, healing collective wounds, and embracing an inclusive, community-driven approach to governance and development, she concluded.

Not just a theoretical concept

Mr Lal stated that the lack of social cohesion stemmed from deeply rooted historical divisions.

Our past, shaped by colonialism, ethnic segregation, and political instability has left lasting scars. Political decisions, driven by narrow interests, had only deepened these divides.

Mr Lal noted how divisive politicians had historically exploited societal divisions, prioritising personal or group interests over national unity.

This had deepened distrust and division, especially between indigenous Fijians and Indo-Fijians.

Despite efforts like the current government’s initiatives on reconciliation, many Fijians, particularly Indo-Fijians, remained disillusioned.

This, he said, was reflected in a mass exodus from the country, driven by a perceived lack of fairness and equity in governance.

Mr Lal said in 2023, the economy narrowly avoided a 10-15 per cent contraction, thanks to a 58 per cent surge in tourism earnings.

He said the 8 per cent growth was almost entirely driven by tourism, while other sectors declined due to a lack of confidence and the departure of skilled workers.

Mr Lal stressed that this stark reality emphasised how the erosion of social cohesion undermined national prosperity.

With education being a powerful tool, schools should promote values like tolerance, respect, and mutual understanding.

He suggested that the national curriculum include Fiji’s diverse cultures, histories, and languages to help dismantle stereotypes that drive division.

According to Mr Lal, teaching social cohesion early on will foster a generation that values inclusivity and respect.

Social cohesion from Solomon Islander community perspective

Pastor Lauvanua said there were deep fractures within and between Fiji’s indigenous Fijian and Pacific Islander communities.

According to him, the lack of social cohesion stems from the system itself; it lies in the lack of ethnic understanding and acceptance of one another, and the inability to establish a shared identity with no security in tenure.

A third-generation, part-Fijian of Solomon Island descent, Pastor Lauvanua noted that since their grandfathers’ arrival in Fiji during the blackbirding period in the 1860s, the Melanesian community has assimilated almost entirely into iTaukei culture.

He explained that, since pre-independence elections, the Melanesian community was classified as “Fijian voters” under the old Fijian Communal Voting System, until after the coup of 1987 when they were reclassified as “General Voters/Electors” under the 2013 Constitution.

Pastor Lauvanua said that, despite identifying as Fijian in many aspects, the community has been denied access to benefits like Fijian Affairs Board scholarships or village housing projects.

A former iTaukei Land Trust Board employee, Pastor Lauvanua highlighted how land tenure and ownership issues have segregated communities. The security of land tenure for the Melanesian community has never been resolved.

He called for “common ground” to address what he described as “fractured social cohesion,” and agreed that cohesion should be incorporated into Fiji’s school curriculum.

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The government-appointed inquiry into Australia’s COVID response has warned public trust won’t be so high in a future pandemic and people would be unlikely to accept again many of the measures taken.

“That means there is a job to be done to rebuild trust, and we must plan a response based on the Australia we are today, not the Australia we were before the pandemic,” the report released on Tuesday said.

The inquiry was conducted by former NSW public servant Robyn Kruk, epidemiologist Catherine Bennett, and economist Angela Jackson. It examined the health and economic responses; while it did not directly delve into the state responses, it did cover the federal-state interface.

The overall takeout from the inquiry is that “Australia did well relative to other nations, that experienced larger losses in human life, health system collapse and more severe economic downturns”.

But “the pandemic response was not as effective as it could have been” for an event for which there was “no playbook for pivotal actions”.

The inquiry said “with the benefit of hindsight, there was excessive fiscal and monetary policy stimulus provided throughout 2021 and 2022, especially in the construction sector. Combined with supply side disruptions, this contributed to inflationary pressures coming out of the pandemic.”

The inquiry criticised the Homebuilder program’s contribution to inflation, as well as Jobkeeper’s targeting, and said blanket access to superannuation should not be repeated.

The government – which might have originally expected the inquiry to have been more critical of the Morrison government – quickly seized on the report’s economic criticisms.

The panel has made a set of recommendations to ensure better preparation for a future pandemic.

It highlighted the “tail” the pandemic has left, especially its effect on children, who suffered school closures.

“Children faced lower health risks from COVID-19; however, broader impacts on the social and emotional development of children are ongoing. These include impacts on mental health, school attendance and academic outcomes for some groups of children.”

The report noted that the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee had never recommended widespread school closures.

A lack of clear communication about risks had created the environment for states to decide to go to remote learning.

The impacts on children should be considered in future pandemic preparations, the inquiry said.

It strongly backed making permanent the interim Australian Centre for Disease Control. The government will legislate next year for the CDC, to start on January 1 2026, as an independent statutory agency.

The CDC would be important in rebuilding trust, the report said, as well as “strengthening resilience and preparedness”. It would provide “national coordination to gather evidence necessary to undertake the assessments that can guide the proportionality of public health responses in future crises”.

The report said trust in government was essential for a successful response to a pandemic.

At COVID’s outset, the public largely did what was asked of them, complying with restrictive public health orders.

But the initial strengthening of trust in government did not continue through the pandemic. By the second year, restrictions on personal freedom were less accepted.

Reasons for the decrease in trust included a lack of transparency in decision making, poor communication, the stringency and duration of restrictions, implementation of mandated measures, access to vaccines and inconsistencies in responses across jurisdictions.

Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Inflation, low wage growth and little job creation have made life very tough in Papua New Guinea for the ordinary person. The PNG government has made some effort to respond to cost-of-living pressures. Depreciation of the kina, while painful for urban residents, helps rural producers earn more for their coffee exports and helps make their vegetable sales more competitive against imports. Increasing the tax-free income tax threshold and doing away with tuition fees helps the working poor and parents. But, with the 2025 budget due to be delivered next month (November 2024), PNG should look to Fiji to see what else it could do to help the country’s population.

Unlike PNG, Fiji has a multiple-rate GST, or VAT as Fiji calls its equivalent. Fiji introduced its VAT in 1992. In 1999, it introduced zero-rating – a zero VAT charge – for various food items. Since then, the number of items zero-rated has been expanded and currently stands at 22, including basic food items (such as flour and rice), basic household items (such as soap and kerosene) and essentials such as prescribed medicines and sanitary pads. Fiji thus currently has two VAT rates: 0 and 15%.

PNG by contrast has persisted with its uniform 10% rate since its introduction of the GST in 1999. More detailed modelling is needed, but some arrangement whereby basic goods were zero-rated and the main rate increased to, say, 15% (as in Fiji) would be much more equitable than PNG’s current system since it would shift more of the tax burden to the better-off consumers (via the 15% rate) away from the worse-off (whose consumption is focused more on basic goods, such as food, which would not be taxed).

Fiji also stands apart from PNG with respect to its social transfer system. Fiji’s Finance Minister Professor Biman Prasad stated in his 2024-25 budget, “We need to protect our vulnerable, the elderly and people with disabilities”. He went on to say that the budget would provide $F200 million (about K360 million) “for around 104,000 beneficiaries under the family assistance scheme, social pension scheme, care and protection allowance, disability allowance, rural pregnant mother food allowance and transport assistance scheme”.

That’s about 10% of the population, so about one million people in PNG. Social transfers tend to be dismissed in PNG as handouts and leading to a dependency mentality, but surely those in need for reasons of disability or age should be getting government support. And, in fact, international evidence shows that such support is empowering rather than debilitating. Certainly such transfers would be a better use of public funds than the massive MP slush funds.

Of course, a system of cash transfers presupposes an administrative capability to disburse funds to individuals. Looking at how PNG has fared with large public-facing projects such as the National Identity Card does not fill one with confidence. Nevertheless, a start could be made in this year’s budget, perhaps with the introduction of cash transfers to the disabled and the non-rich elderly poor. Not only are these groups clearly in need of help, but they are also ones with relatively straightforward eligibility criteria.

One way forward would be through outsourcing. Banks, other financial institutions and mobile phone operators could be invited to tender to distribute the new social transfers. International expertise should also be drawn on. Both the World Bank and Australia’s Partnerships for Social Protection have extensive expertise in this area. The next 12 months could be dedicated to planning, with the actual launch of the transfers in 2026.

The January riots should be a wake-up call. When it formulates its 2025 budget, the PNG government should look to Fiji to see what more can be done to prevent future riots, to make life easier for the ordinary Papua New Guinean, and to fulfil PNG’s constitutional directive “to achieve an equitable distribution of incomes”.

Disclosure: This research was undertaken with the support of the ANU-UPNG Partnership, an initiative of the PNG-Australia Partnership, funded by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. The views are those of the authors only.

This article was first published in the Australian National University’s DevpolicyBlog and has been republished here with the kind permission of the editor(s). The Blog is run out of the Development Policy Centre housed in the Crawford School of Public Policy in the ANU College of Asia and the Pacific at The Australian National University.

Contributing Author(s): Andrew Anton Mako is a visiting lecturer and project coordinator for the ANU-UPNG Partnership. He has worked as a research officer at the Development Policy Centre and as a research fellow at the PNG National Research Institute. Stephen Howes is Director of the Development Policy Centre and Professor of Economics at the Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University.

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Some of the ways migrants are exploited in the workforce get a lot of public attention. We hear tragic stories about wage theft, forced unpaid overtime, unsafe work conditions or discrimination. And we are likely to hear more such grim stories revealed at a NSW parliamentary inquiry that will examine modern slavery in Australia.

These vulnerabilities all relate to what researchers call workplace precarity – insecurity or uncertainty at work. But too often, a major piece of this picture gets overlooked.

My recent analysis of more than 900 court cases brought by migrant workers shines a light on migrants being sexually harassed, sexually assaulted or trafficked for sexual reasons in their workplaces.

Yet, with the exception of a recent landmark research report on sexual harassment experienced by migrant women, this issue has not received the attention it deserves.

The taboo nature of sexual crimes likely plays a role in this neglect. When it is covered, there is often a somewhat sensationalist focus by the media on the sex work industry.

In the process, we may overfocus on sex work and neglect many other workplaces in which migrant workers can face forms of sexual violence. Any reckoning with workplace precarity more broadly cannot afford to ignore the risk of sexual exploitation.

What is ‘precarity’?

Workplace “precarity” – insecurity or uncertainty at work – can affect us all.

It can encompass a wide range of aspects, including a lack of workplace protections, job insecurity and social or economic instability at work.

Visa status, a lack of knowledge of local laws and language barriers can all make migrants more vulnerable to workplace precarity.

Unscrupulous employers may exploit these known vulnerabilities to extract favours and take advantage.

Many theories of economic precarity do not consider sexual risk at all.

What my research uncovered

My research, drawn from more than 900 court cases brought by migrant workers, uncovered some harrowing examples.

In one case in Canada, an employer sexually harassed and in one case raped two migrant women who worked in his business as fish filleters. One of the women felt she had to comply with demands for fellatio to avoid deportation back to Mexico.

Following a ruling, the women were awarded damages under Ontario human rights law.

In another highly publicised case in Australia, a farmer was found guilty of raping a young British backpacker, threatening refusal to sign off on her farm work if she did not comply.

Such a “sign off” is required for a working holiday maker to be able to extend their visa for an additional year.

Sex slavery

A further case concerned sex slavery. Two Thai women entered Australia fraudulently on tourist visas with the intention of undertaking sex work. The sex work began, with their consent.

However, they came to be subjected to work that went beyond what had been contracted in terms of the number of clients, the nature of sexual services provided, frequency and rest periods.

One woman suffered damage to her sexual organs. They also had their mobile phones removed. After several legal appeals, this behaviour was found to amount to sex trafficking and the defendant employer was imprisoned.

An attempt to overturn the conviction was refused.

Recent research by the NSW Anti Slavery Commissioner’s Office with migrant workers on NSW farms also suggests allegations of sexual violence could be unreported due to a perceived risk of retaliation.

Interwoven risks

These cases, and many others, all demonstrate that economic and sexual exploitation can commingle for migrant workers.

In such cases, employers may use economic and visa vulnerability to extract sexual favours. At times in these cases, there are also egregious examples of underpayment or even non-payment.

To capture this relationship in migration systems, I developed the term sexual precarity. This has five core components:

1. restrictive visa conditions
2. debt bondage
3. live-in arrangements that heighten exposure to employers during non-working hours
4. entrapment and slavery
5. the combination of sexual violence with economic exploitation or other forms of physical injury.

What needs to be done?

First, as with broader migrant worker rights, education campaigns for migrants are required.

These would extend beyond making them better informed about their rights on economic exploitation to issues of discrimination and protection from sexual exploitation.

Second, practical safeguards can be put in place to protect migrant women in isolated workplaces.

This might include female-only sleeping dorms, female-only agriculture workforces, support person rules for meetings with male employers and general advice on sexual consent laws for both employers and employees.

Third, policymakers could consider whether sexual offences that are accompanied by a visa threat should suffer additional penalties under criminal or immigration law.

This has already been made the case with recent changes to visa sponsorship where employers who coerce migrants into breaching their visa conditions are subjected to certain penalties.

Anna Boucher, Associate Professor in Public Policy and Political Science, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Gambling, especially sports and race betting, is a hot political issue at the moment.

This is largely due to the recommendations from a 2023 report from a nonpartisan federal government committee, chaired by the late Peta Murphy, called You Win Some, You Lose More.

This report recommended that “the Australian government, with the cooperation of the states and territories, implement a comprehensive ban on all forms of advertising for online gambling”.

This has led to lots of debate and controversy.

Recently, Peter V’landys, head of the NRL and Racing NSW, claimed lotteries were more harmful than race and sports betting combined, citing independent statistics.

Let’s explore the relative harm of different types of gambling and see if this claim holds up.

Australians love a punt

Gambling is widespread in Australia, with more than half of adults engaging in at least one form each year.

According to the latest national data, lotteries are the most common type (40% of Australians buy a ticket annually), followed by race betting (17%), pokies (16%), scratchies (15.7%) and sports betting (9.6%).

However, the popularity of a gambling form doesn’t necessarily reflect its harm. Different gambling activities have distinct characteristics.

Two key factors mean that some gambling forms are more harmful than others: the speed of gambling and bet size.

Pokies allow for frequent, small bets, with spins every three seconds. Race and sports betting can involve much larger sums and betting that is relatively fast, but still slower than pokie spins.

Sports betting, in particular, is getting faster with in-play betting and microbetting.

Lotteries, on the other hand, are much slower-paced.

People typically spend a small amount on tickets and wait for a draw to find out if they’ve won.

Although it’s possible to spend a lot on tickets, people tend not to, unlike with faster gambling forms.

The average spend on pokies among the 16% who play them is around $4,782 per year, compared to an average spend on lotteries of $377 per year. These are averages. Most won’t spend these amounts but some will spend far more, which raises the average amount.

V’landys’ claim about lotteries being more harmful than race and sports betting was based on “independent statistics”.

He said that of 100 people seeking help from a gambling hotline, 70 had issues with pokies, 15 with lotteries, eight with race betting, four with sports betting, and three with casinos.

We were unable to verify these figures – if anyone has the data, we’d love to see the research to assess them.

However, we do have publicly available data.

What the data say

The NSW GambleAware website’s 2020-21 report shows that of 2,886 people seeking help, 73.3% identified pokies as their primary form of gambling, while only 13 people (less than 1%) listed lotteries. Race betting accounted for 13.1%, and sports betting for 7.9%.

These patterns were consistent with previous years.

People who experience problems also usually take part in more than one form of gambling, as the NSW report showed.

When these secondary gambling activities were considered, sports betting was cited by 35.5%, race betting by 33.5%, pokies by 19.5%, and lotteries by 13.7%.

What we discovered

The best evidence on gambling problems and harm comes from large-scale prevalence studies, typically commissioned by governments and conducted by independent researchers.

These studies offer high-quality insights into how each gambling form contributes to problems.

While one prevalence study is great, our team recently combined data from seven national and state-based prevalence studies. This resulted in a very high-quality dataset that we can use to study this question.

In our analysis, we used statistical techniques to show how strongly each gambling form is associated with problems.

These techniques give us regression coefficients, which are just numbers that tell us how strong the association is. A higher number means a stronger association between that form and gambling problems.

The most problematic form was pokies (coefficient = 0.147), followed by casino games (0.136), sports betting (0.068) and race betting (0.038).

Lotteries, with a coefficient of 0.001, were the least problematic and were not statistically significant even in our large sample.

As you might guess from such a low number, there’s very little relationship between lotteries and gambling problems.

What about prevalence?

Prevalence matters too – while pokies were most strongly associated with problems, the number of people participating in each gambling form is also important.

Let’s consider an analogy – a car that gives out a lot of exhaust fumes. That car is harmful, but if virtually no one owns one, then it’s not going to account for much pollution.

The same idea applies for gambling forms. If a gambling form is very harmful but very few people do it, it doesn’t account for many problems in the population.

It works the other way, too – if there is a very clean type of car that many people drive, they also won’t add up to much pollution.

Similarly, if we have gambling forms that have very little association with problems, it won’t add up to many problems in the population, even if lots of people take part.

The regression coefficients tell us how problematic each gambling form is. Prevalance tells us how many people do it.

When we combine these two bits of information, we can work out the degree of problems in the community that come from each form.

When we did this, pokies were responsible for 52-57% of gambling problems in the community.

Sports and race betting each contributed 9-11%, with a combined total of around 20%.

Lotteries accounted for just 0.1-1% of problems.

Even if we include scratchies as part of lotteries, this only adds another 2-5% of problems, still far below sports and race betting.

The real issue

What’s the takeaway?

Lotteries are widely played but are not typically associated with much harm.

Sports and race betting, despite having fewer participants, are more harmful due to their faster pace and the potential for large, frequent bets.

Lotteries involve slower betting and lower spending, making them much less risky.

If we aim to reduce gambling harm in our community, the focus should be on pokies, which are widespread in pubs and clubs outside WA, casino games and race and sports betting.

These forms have features that make them far more harmful than slower-paced gambling like lotteries.

Alex Russell, Principal Research Fellow, CQUniversity Australia; Matthew Browne, Senior Lecturer in Statistics, CQUniversity Australia, and Matthew Rockloff, Head, Experimental Gambling Research Lab, CQUniversity Australia

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Early entry schemes for university – where students get an offer before their final exams – are increasingly popular.

For example, more than 27,000 students applied to the Universities Admissions Centre (which mostly deals with New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory unis) for an early offer in 2024. This was a record number and an almost 19% increase on 2023.

On the one hand, early offers are seen as a way to reduce pressure on Year 12 students. But they are also increasingly criticised, with concerns students may stop trying once they receive an offer.

Our new research shows applying for an early offer does not make a significant difference to how hard a student tries leading up to their final exams or their final results.

What are early offers?

The main round of university offers is in December-January, after students have done their final exams in the previous October and November and have their final results or ATAR.

With early entry offer schemes, universities assess students using criteria other than (or on top of) final results.

Amid concerns about students reducing their efforts, in February this year, federal and state education ministers agreed there would be no university offers until September. Federal Education Minister Jason Clare is pushing for a new, national approach to early entry by 2027.

Our research

Our new study investigated the role of early entry offers on Year 12 students’ academic and personal wellbeing.

We looked at three types of students: students applying for and receiving an early offer, students applying for but not receiving an early offer, and students who did not apply for an early offer.

We then looked at multiple forms of academic and personal wellbeing, including:

• the ATAR
• motivation at school (their interest, energy, and drive to learn) and enjoyment of school
• how students dealt with academic challenges (also called “academic buoyancy”)
• study burnout
• overall life satisfaction, mental health and self-esteem.

Who did we study?

The study involved Year 12 students in 2022 from schools in New South Wales.

The average age for participants was 17, most (68%) were female, the majority (69%) lived in an urban area, just under a quarter (23%) were from a non-English speaking background, and just over half were from government schools (52%).

We tracked the ATARs of 1,512 students for whom we had early offer data.

We also surveyed a subset of 525 students from this group. We surveyed them in term 2 of Year 12 and then followed up with a second survey in term 4, about 2 weeks before their final exams.

The surveys included questions about their academic and personal wellbeing. Both surveys were done online.

What we found

In terms of early entry status, 16% did not apply for an early offer, 21% applied but were unsuccessful, and 63% received an early offer.

Using statistical modelling to control for prior differences in achievement and motivation between the groups, as well as age, gender, school type and learning difficulties, we found an early offer did not appear to have an impact on a student’s ATAR.

We also found no impact on their motivation, effort, burnout or mental health.

In fact, the best predictors of students’ final results were their previous results and their efforts earlier in Year 12.

As our research showed, the findings for these predictors were statistically significant, meaning we can have confidence the results were not due to chance.

This mirrors other research that suggests you can predict a student’s ATAR from their Year 11 results.

One important difference

We did find one statistically significant effect. Those receiving an early offer scored about 10% higher in academic buoyancy than the other two groups.

This means these students reported they were better able to overcome academic challenges, such as difficult assessment tasks and competing deadlines, as they approached their final exams.

We found this difference even after controlling for any prior group differences in academic buoyancy.

But we note it was only a relatively small effect.

Why was there so little difference?

Some possible explanations about why early offers did not appear to make much difference include:

• Year 12 is a busy year full of activities (from formals and other events, to plans for life after school). It could be early entry status is quickly absorbed in all the demands of the final year and becomes normalised
• the joy or relief of an early offer is short-lived and students return to their emotional equilibrium or their typical “set point” in terms of outlook on life
• the ATAR looms large in students’ lives, so they may still want to do as well as they can – regardless of whether they get an early offer or not.

What does this mean?

Our study suggests receiving an early offer for university does not make much of a difference to final outcomes.

So this suggests students can apply for an early entry offer if they want to.

But once the application is submitted, they need to return their focus to factors that are influential in final outcomes — such as their learning, motivation, and engagement through Year 12.

Helen Tam, Kim Paino, Anthony Manny, Mitch Smith and Nicole Swanson from the Universities Admissions Centre helped with the research on which this article is based.

Andrew J. Martin, Scientia Professor and Professor of Educational Psychology, UNSW Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Enhancing regional integration by promoting freer movement in the Pacific has emerged as a compelling strategy for fostering regional prosperity. Yet, the social and economic integration of the Pacific diaspora in Australia — a key destination for Pacific migrants — remains relatively underexplored beyond basic population statistics.

In the first part of a new blog series, we analyse Australian Census data to explore the characteristics of the Pacific diaspora, focusing on age structure. Subsequent blogs will look at labour market outcomes, geographical distribution, gender gaps and the second generation. We limit our focus to people born in independent Pacific states with ancestry from the region (including Fijian Indian) to exclude expatriates’ children and we compare Pacific diaspora outcomes with those for migrants from Western and other (referred to as “non-Western”) countries.

Figure 1 shows that the average age within the Pacific diaspora in the 2021 Australian Census is 45, younger than for Western countries (54) but older than for other, non-Western countries (41). Diasporas from Niue and Timor-Leste have an average age of over 50, while those from Solomon Islands and Vanuatu are much younger, averaging just over 30.

Why do differences exist between regions and countries? We explore two factors — duration of residency and age at arrival — to help explain them.

Figure 1: Average age of migrants in the 2021 Australian Census

Figure 2 shows that, for the region as a whole, Pacific migrants have moved evenly — that is, at a steady rate — to Australia over the past 50 years. By contrast, migration from non-Western countries has been more recent, and from Western countries less recent.

Arrival patterns are mostly consistent and steady across Pacific countries, but Vanuatu and Timor-Leste are at the two extremes. Vanuatu is a significant source of workers for the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme so Vanuatu’s pattern is shaped by recent inflows of temporary workers who return home after their employment ends. In contrast, Timor-Leste’s arrivals are shaped by historical events, with 80% arriving in Australia before 2000, primarily under humanitarian visas.

Pacific countries with a relatively large diaspora in Australia — Fiji (33,742), Samoa (24,066), PNG (11,584) and Tonga (10,680) — show steady arrival rates over the past 40 years. However, their growth rates have been declining and are now below those of non-Western countries.

Another factor is the age of migrants upon arrival in Australia. There is less variation across Pacific countries in average age of arrival than current age. Migrants from Niue have the highest average age at arrival (34), partly due to a relatively high proportion migrating after age 50 (over 10%), which skews the average for their small diaspora. Niue is a tiny country and most Niueans who wanted to leave did so long ago. All Niueans have New Zealand passports and can migrate to Australia easily. Samoa also has a relatively high arrival age because many Samoans migrate to New Zealand first before relocating to Australia. Migrants from Nauru and Papua New Guinea have lower arrival ages. Many arrived as children: 51% of Nauruan and 33% of Papua New Guinean migrants to Australia were between 0 and 9 years old on arrival (Figure 3).

To summarise, while there are interesting national differences, the average Pacific migrant is younger than the average Western migrant (45 vs 54) because, even though they arrive older (25 vs 20), the former has lived in Australia for much a shorter period (20 vs 34 years). By contrast, the average Pacific migrant is older than the average non-Western migrant (45 vs 41) because although they both arrive at the same age (25), the former has been in Australia for longer (20 vs 16 years).

Subsequent blogs in this series will further explore the unique characteristics of the Pacific diaspora within the broader Australian context.

Disclosure: This research was supported by the Pacific Research Program, with funding from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. The views are those of the authors only.

This article was first published in the Australian National University’s DevpolicyBlog and has been republished here with the kind permission of the editor(s). The Blog is run out of the Development Policy Centre housed in the Crawford School of Public Policy in the ANU College of Asia and the Pacific at The Australian National University.

Contributing Author(s): Huiyuan (Sharon) Liu is a research officer at the Development Policy Centre, working in the area of economic development. Toan Nguyen is a Research Fellow at the Development Policy Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU.

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You had a great night out, but the next morning, anxiety hits: your heart races, and you replay every conversation from the night before in your head. This feeling, known as hangover anxiety or “hangxiety”, affects around 22% of social drinkers.

While for some people, it’s mild nerves, for others, it’s a wave of anxiety that feels impossible to ride out. The “Sunday scaries” may make you feel panicked, filled with dread and unable to relax.

Hangover anxiety can make even simple tasks feel overwhelming. Here’s why it happens, and what you can do about it.

What does alcohol do to our brains?

A hangover is the body’s way of recovering after drinking alcohol, bringing with it a range of symptoms.

Dehydration and disrupted sleep play a large part in the pounding headaches and nausea many of us know too well after a big night out. But hangovers aren’t just physical – there’s a strong mental side too.

Alcohol is a nervous system depressant, meaning it alters how certain chemical messengers (or neurotransmitters) behave in the brain. Alcohol relaxes you by increasing gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), the neurotransmitter that makes you feel calm and lowers inhibitions. It decreases glutamate and this also slows down your thoughts and helps ease you into a more relaxed state.

Together, this interaction affects your mood, emotions and alertness. This is why when we drink, we often feel more sociable, carefree and willing to let our guard down.

As the effects of the alcohol wear off, your brain works to rebalance these chemicals by reducing GABA and increasing glutamate. This shift has the opposite effect of the night before, causing your brain to become more excitable and overstimulated, which can lead to feelings of anxiety.

So why do some people get hangxiety, while others don’t? There isn’t one clear answer to this question, as several factors can play a role in whether someone experiences hangover-related anxiety.

Genes play a role

For some, a hangover is simply a matter of how much they drank or how hydrated they are. But genetics may also play a significant role. Research shows your genes can explain almost half the reason why you wake up feeling hungover, while your friend might not.

Because genes influence how your body processes alcohol, some people may experience more intense hangover symptoms, such as headaches or dehydration. These stronger physical effects can, in turn, trigger anxiety during a hangover, making you more susceptible to “hangxiety.”

Do you remember what you said last night?

But one of the most common culprits for feeling anxious the next day is often what you do while drinking.

Let’s say you’ve had a big night out and you can’t quite recall a conversation you had or something you did. Maybe you acted in ways that you now regret or feel embarrassed about. You might fixate on these thoughts and get trapped in a cycle of worrying and rumination. This cycle can be hard to break and can make you feel more anxious.

Research suggests people who already struggle with feelings of anxiety in their day-to-day lives are especially vulnerable to hangxiety.

Some people drink alcohol to unwind after a stressful day or to make themselves feel more comfortable at social events. This often leads to heavier consumption, which can make hangover symptoms more severe. It can also begin a cycle of drinking to feel better, making hangxiety even harder to escape.

Preventing hangover anxiety

The best way to prevent hangxiety is to limit your alcohol consumption. The Australian guidelines recommend having no more than ten standard drinks per week and no more than four standard drinks on any one day.

Generally, the more you drink, the more intense your hangover symptoms might be, and the worse you are likely to feel.

Mixing other drugs with alcohol can also increase the risk of hangxiety. This is especially true for party drugs, such as ecstasy or MDMA, that give you a temporary high but can lead to anxiety as they wear off and you are coming down.

If you do wake up feeling anxious:

• focus on the physical recovery to help ease the mental strain
• drink plenty of water, eat a light meal and allow yourself time to rest
• try mindfulness meditation or deep breathing exercises, especially if anxiety keeps you awake or your mind races
• consider journalling. This can help re-frame anxious thoughts, put your feelings into perspective and encourage self-compassion
• talk to a close friend. This can provide a safe space to express concerns and feel less isolated.

Hangxiety is an unwelcome guest after a night out. Understanding why hangxiety happens – and how you can manage it – can make the morning after a little less daunting, and help keep those anxious thoughts at bay.

Blair Aitken, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Psychopharmacology, Swinburne University of Technology and Rebecca Rothman, PhD Candidate in Clinical Psychology, School of Health Sciences, Swinburne University of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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By Jamie Pittock and Andrew Blakers

Solar and wind have won the global energy race. They accounted for 80% of new global power capacity installed in 2023. In Australia, 99% of new capacity is wind or solar.

The Queensland election campaign suggests both sides of politics have embraced the renewable energy transition. But solar and wind are variable and need energy storage. That is where pumped hydro energy storage and batteries come in.

Both are off-the-shelf technologies. And both are already being used on a vast scale.

Having promised 80% renewable energy by 2035, the incumbent Labor government is committed to large pumped hydro systems at Borumba, on the Sunshine Coast, and Pioneer-Burdekin, near Mackay. The A$14.2 billion Borumba project appears to have support from both major parties. However, the Liberal National Party (LNP) says it will scrap the $12 billion Pioneer Burdekin project and the renewables target if elected.

While Pioneer-Burdekin is a very good site, there are good alternatives. The LNP says it “will investigate opportunities for smaller, more manageable pumped hydro projects”. Regardless, in supporting more pumped hydro storage and rejecting the federal Coalition’s nuclear power plans, the state LNP is accepting the renewable energy transformation as inevitable.

What is pumped hydro energy storage?

Pumped hydro systems store surplus electricity from solar and wind on sunny and windy days. The electricity is used to pump water from a lower reservoir to an upper reservoir. This water can later be released downhill though turbines to generate power when it’s needed.

This proven technology has been used for over a century. It accounts for about 90% of global energy storage. Australia has three pumped hydro systems (Tumut 3, Kangaroo Valley, Wivenhoe) and two under construction (Snowy 2.0 and Kidston).

Snowy 2.0 will last for at least 100 years. Its capacity (350 gigawatt-hours, GWh) is equivalent to 6 million electric vehicle batteries. It’s enough to power 3 million homes for a week.

Due to start operating in 2028, Snowy 2.0 will cost about $12 billion. That’s roughly equivalent to $2,000 for a 100-year-lifetime EV battery. Pumped hydro energy storage is cheap!

ANU’s RE100 Group has published global atlases of about 800,000 potential pumped hydro sites. None require new dams on rivers. Some are new sites (greenfield). Others would use existing reservoirs (bluefield) or old mines (brownfield).

What about batteries?

Batteries are best for short-term storage (a few hours). Pumped hydro is better for overnight or several days – Snowy 2.0 will provide 150 hours of storage.

A combination of these storage systems is better than either alone.

As with any major infrastructure, pumped hydro development has costs and risks. It has high upfront capital costs but very low operating costs.

What are Queensland’s options?

In Queensland, solar and wind electricity rose from 2% to 26% of total generation over the past decade. It’s heading for about 75% in 2030 as part of Australia’s 82% renewables target.

Queensland needs roughly 150 GWh of extra storage for full decarbonisation. After accounting for Borumba (50 GWh), batteries and other storage, Pioneer-Burdekin (120 GWh) would meet that need.

A similarly sized system or several smaller systems would also suffice. The latter approach has advantages of decentralisation but would cost more and have environmental impacts in more places.

The state has thousands of potential sites that are “off-river” (do not require new dams on rivers). The table below shows 15 premium sites, most with capacities of 50–150 GWh. Some larger sizes are included for interest – 5,000 GWh would store enough energy for 100 million people.

The key technical parameters are:

• head: the altitude difference between the two reservoirs – bigger is better
• slope: the ratio of the head to the distance between the reservoirs – larger slope means shorter tunnel
• W/R: the volume of stored water (W) divided by the volume of rock (R) needed for the reservoir walls. Large W/R means low-cost reservoirs.

Clicking on each name takes you to a view of the site with more details.

Pumped storage in far north Queensland is valuable because it can absorb solar and wind energy from the Copperstring transmission extension to Mt Isa. It can then send it down the transmission line to Brisbane at off-peak times. This will ensure the line mostly operates close to full capacity.

What about the rest of Australia?

Pumped storage and batteries keep the lights on during solar and wind energy droughts that occasionally occur in winter in southern Australia. They also meet evening peak demand.

The fossil fuel lobby argues gas is needed in the energy transition. But pumped hydro and battery storage eliminate the need for gas generators and their greenhouse gas emissions.

In the past decade, solar and wind generation in Australia’s National Electricity Market increased from 6% to 35%. Gas fell from 12% to 5%.

Most pumped hydro projects can be built off rivers. The same water is repeatedly transferred between the reservoirs. This means the system keeps running during droughts and avoids the impacts of new dams blocking rivers and flooding valleys.

The environmental and social impacts of off-river pumped hydro projects are much lower than for conventional hydropower or fossil fuel projects.

The system uses very common materials, primarily water, rock, concrete and steel. Very little land is flooded for off-river pumped hydro to support a 100% renewable energy system: about 3 square metres per person. Only about 3 litres of water per person per day is needed for the initial fill and to replace evaporation.

Sometimes, safely disposing of tunnel spoil is a challenge – as with mining (including for coal and battery metals). Any major new generation facility and its transmission lines may involve clearing and disturbing bushland. Local communities sometimes oppose pumped hydro developments.

In Australia, ANU identified 5,500 potential sites. Only one to two dozen are needed to enable the nation to be fully powered by renewables.

About a dozen pumped hydro projects are in detailed planning. Hydro Tasmania’s Battery of the Nation is proposed for Cethana. Other prominent projects include Oven Mountain, Central West, Upper Hunter Hydro and Burragorang in New South Wales.

You can expect to see more pumped hydro systems in a state near you.

Jamie Pittock, Professor, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University and Andrew Blakers, Professor of Engineering, Australian National University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reveals one in seven adult Australians have been stalked in their lifetime: one in five women and one in 15 men.

While shocking to many, for those of us who work in the field, there is nothing surprising about these figures.

The ABS has conducted similar surveys roughly every five years since 2005, which reveal basically the same results each time.

About 3-4% of women and 1-2% of men are victims of stalking every year.

These rates are consistent with those reported in research from the United Kingdom and United States, with small variations depending on definition.

Stalking rates have remained stubbornly consistent despite the same ABS survey showing reductions in the rates of intimate partner violence and general violence over the past decade.

The reasons for this are unclear, though there are obvious differences in the level of government and community investment in countering intimate partner violence versus awareness of and attention to stalking.

What exactly is stalking?

Stalking is a pattern of repeated and unwanted behaviour in which one person pushes their way into the life of another where they have no legitimate right to be, causing the target distress and fear.

The most common methods are unwanted communication (by phone or digital media) and unwanted contacts (such as following someone or loitering nearby).

Threats of violence and assault occur in at least a quarter of cases.

Stalking that persists for more than two weeks is more likely to continue and cause significant harm.

The impact of stalking

Victims of persistent stalking have described it as “psychological rape”, with the stalker invading every part of their life.

The cumulative impact of seemingly never-ending intrusions, and their social and financial toll, is probably why stalking victims report high rates of depression, anxiety and traumatic stress disorders.

Researchers have estimated being stalked for 14 months costs victims approximately $A140,000, including direct costs from lost work and legal expenses and indirect costs of physical and mental harm.

Who stalks?

Most stalking is perpetrated by people who are known to the victim, either as an acquaintance or an ex-partner, with strangers responsible for about 20-25% of stalking.

Stalking usually starts either because the person feels mistreated and stalks to take revenge or right the wrong, or they stalk to start or enact a relationship with the victim that does not exist. In a small number of cases, stalking has a sexual motivation and can sometimes be part of planning or preparation for a sexual assault.

Regardless of motivation, most stalking is communicative – the stalker wants the victim to know they exist and to feel like they must respond.

However, responding to a stalker is not advisable as it usually just adds fuel to the emotional fire that drives them.

Ex-partners account for just under half of all stalking cases and many more women than men are stalked by an ex.

Stalking in this context is a type of intimate partner violence and it receives by far the most attention and response.

Research suggests that intimate partner stalking is more often identified as being perpetrated by former rather than current partners.

Psychological abuse or coercive control during a relationship might be linked to increased potential for stalking after a break-up.

Physical violence is much more common in cases of ex-partner stalking, with the ABS survey and earlier research finding half of intimate partner stalkers used physical violence.

Thankfully, most stalking-related violence does not cause severe physical harm and homicide is extremely rare.

Although prior stalking is common in ex-partner homicides, recent Victorian research showed that of 5,026 intimate partner violence reports to police involving stalking, only nine involved fatal or near fatal violence in the following 12 months.

This means the presence of stalking is not a useful risk factor for trying to predict intimate partner homicide.

Strategies against stalking

Numerous strategies have been identified to prevent and reduce stalking-related harms. Among those tried largely outside Australia:

• stalking awareness campaigns
• training and specialist responses by police and courts
• education for young people in schools
• providing psychological treatment for people who stalk.

The Victorian Law Reform Commission’s 2022 review of stalking laws recommended adoption of several of these strategies, though to date the state government has committed only to revising the stalking law.

A simple but powerful strategy

Stalking is a complicated problem and a comprehensive response needs multi-faceted systemic change that will be costly and take much effort and time.

Currently, there doesn’t seem to be an appetite in Australia for the work required.

However, there is one relatively straightforward thing the federal, state and territory governments could do right now to help: establish a national stalking helpline that can provide specialist information, advice and advocacy for all victims.

Such a helpline was established in the UK in 2010 and has supported more than 65,000 people.

The helpline provides online and telephone advice to potential stalking victims, including basic risk assessment, advocacy and links to local support services. It also provides advice to mental health professionals and others who are supporting stalking victims.

The helpline serves all people, regardless of their gender or relationship with the stalker. Nearly half (45%) of its clients are stalked by a stranger or acquaintance, not an ex-partner. This highlights the importance of a specialised stalking response separate to existing services for family and intimate partner violence.

An Australian equivalent would provide immediate support for victims and a focal point for necessary research and evaluation into what works to stop stalking.

An Australian national stalking helpline would be a practical, relatively inexpensive and immediately helpful strategy that governments could implement to support the hundreds of thousands of Australians who are stalked every year.

Troy McEwan, Professor of Clinical and Forensic Psychology, Swinburne University of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Many Australians are victims and survivors of child sexual abuse.

Almost one in three have been sexually abused as a child, generally more than once, and often with significant and lifelong impacts.

The National Centre for Action on Child Sexual Abuse has released findings from more than 4,000 adults in a new study examining the community’s attitudes towards, knowledge of, and responses to child sexual abuse.

The data reveal some troubling findings, with pervasive and harmful community norms and attitudes that act to enable child sexual abuse to continue.

What are social norms?

Social norms are “rules” shared among people in a particular society, community, or group, and define what is considered “normal” and appropriate behaviour within the group.

These rules are often unwritten and not openly discussed.

These norms influence what people do (and don’t do) in many aspects of life, including preventing and responding to child sexual abuse.

Why do they matter?

Some cultures’ norms and attitudes limit disclosure of abuse.

In our study, 62% were pretty sure they knew someone who had been sexually abused as a child.

Yet only 9% had directly been told by a child about being sexually abused, while 35% had been told by an adult about historical child sexual abuse.

These low rates suggest there are forces at play that limit talking about child sexual abuse.

Some in the community believe it’s not acceptable to discuss child sexual abuse. In response to a hypothetical disclosure by an adult friend, about one in ten thought it was very/extremely important to tell their friend that it’s best not to talk about it at all.

Some (5%) reported they would try to avoid their friend.

What else did the research reveal?

There was also evidence community members didn’t think child sexual abuse was an important problem or that it affected them directly.

Around two in three adults felt they were not directly affected or were unsure if they were affected by child sexual abuse. More than half didn’t think child sexual abuse happened where they live.

One in ten thought child sexual abuse receives too much media coverage.

Some norms and attitudes also limit intervention to stop child sexual abuse.

We found that of those who discovered or received a child’s disclosure about sexual abuse, less than half had a supportive conversation with the child (about 40%) and/or reported to authorities like police or child protection agencies (about 30%).

Also, almost one in three adults were “not at all” confident about how to talk to the parent/carer of a child they suspected had been sexually abused. More than a quarter (28%) felt “not at all” confident about how to start a conversation with the child they suspected had been sexually abused.

Not having these conversations or not reporting maintains secrecy around child sexual abuse. It can send a message to victims and survivors not to talk about it, or that nothing will be done to stop the abuse.

Though the lack of intervention may be due to a lack of confidence, we also found adults held attitudes that children can’t always be believed (22%) or were too unreliable to take their word over an adult’s (18%).

These attitudes mean many children won’t be believed and protected if they disclose sexual abuse.

Some norms and attitudes increase acceptance of child sexual abuse, or blame victims, especially adolescents.

Alarmingly, 40% of respondents in the study thought older children were responsible for actively resisting an adult’s sexual advances, and 12% believed adolescent girls who wear very revealing clothing are “asking” to be sexually abused.

Adding to this, 13% believed children who act “seductively” are at least partly to blame if an adult responds sexually, while 8% thought obedient children are less likely to experience child sexual abuse, implying “good” children won’t be sexually abused.

These harmful attitudes misdirect the blame for the abuse onto the victim, making it unsafe for them to disclose and at the same time, making it acceptable for adults to stay silent.

Blaming victims maintains the status quo of unacceptably high levels of child sexual abuse and causes further harm.

Where to from here?

Putting an end to the sexual abuse of children in Australia requires concerted and co-ordinated action at all levels of society.

Global initiatives offer some guidance on how shifting entrenched and harmful attitudes and norms can change behaviours.

At a minimum, we must challenge gender inequality and power imbalances, promote equitable relationships and shared responsibilities. Mobilisation programs intervening directly at the community level and initiatives with specific populations who hold harmful and problematic attitudes are also promising in preventing child sexual abuse.

Now we have benchmarks on the community’s attitudes towards child sexual abuse, we can measure the effectiveness of Australia’s efforts for change.

It is everyone’s responsibility to know the signs, listen, believe and act in response to child sexual abuse.

Andrea de Silva, Adjunct professor, Monash University and Amanda L. Robertson, Adjunct Research Fellow – Griffith Criminology Institute, Griffith University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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There is a belief widely held across the Western world: Chinese students are schooled through rote, passive learning – and an educational system like this can only produce docile workers who lack innovation or creativity.

We argue this is far from true. In fact, the Chinese education system is producing highly successful students and an extremely skilled and creative workforce. We think the world can learn something from this.

In a viral video earlier this year, Apple CEO Tim Cook highlighted the unique concentration of skilled labour that attracted his manufacturing operations to China:

In the US, you could have a meeting of tooling engineers, and I’m not sure we could fill the room. In China you could fill multiple football fields.

To which Tesla CEO Elon Musk quickly responded on X: “True”.

When South African President Cyril Ramaphosa visited the Shenzhen headquarters of electric vehicle manufacturer BYD earlier this year, he was surprised to learn the company was planning to double its 100,000-strong engineering taskforce within the coming decade.

He might not have been so surprised had he known Chinese universities are producing more than ten million graduates every year – the foundation for a super-economy.

The ‘paradox of the Chinese learner’

Chinese learners achieve remarkable success levels compared to their Western – or non-Confucian-heritage – counterparts.

Since Shanghai first participated in the PISA educational evaluation in 2009, 15‑year-olds in China have topped the league table three out of four times in reading, mathematics and science.

How can a supposedly passive and rote Chinese system outperform its Western counterparts? A number of Australian scholars have been studying this “paradox of the Chinese learner” since the 1990s.

Their research shows those common perceptions of Chinese and other Asian learners are wrong. For example, repetition and meaningful learning are not mutually exclusive. As one Chinese saying goes:

书读百遍其意自现 – meaning reveals itself when you read something many times.

What can Western education learn?

An emphasis on education is a defining feature of Chinese culture. Since Confucianism became the state-sanctioned doctrine in the Han Dynasty (202BCE–220CE), education has entered every fabric of Chinese society.

This became especially true after the institutionalisation of the Keju system of civil service examinations during the Sui Dynasty (581CE–618CE).

Today, the Gaokao university entrance examination is the modern Keju equivalent. Millions of school leavers take the exam each year. For three days every July, Chinese society largely comes to a standstill for the Gaokao.

While the cultural drive for educational excellence is a major motivation for everyone involved in the system, it is not something that is easily learned and replicated in Western societies.

However, there are two principles we believe are central to Chinese educational success, at both the learner and system levels. We use two Chinese idioms to illustrate these.

The first we call “orderly and gradual progress” – 循序渐进. This principle stresses patient, step-by-step and sequenced learning, sustained by grit and delayed gratification.

The second we call “thick accumulation before thin production” – 厚积薄发. This principle stresses the importance of two things:

• a comprehensive foundation through accumulation of basic knowledge and skills
• assimilation, integration and productive creativity only come after this firm foundation.

Knowledge, skill and creativity

The epitome of orderly and gradual progress is the way calligraphy is learned. It goes from easy to difficult, simple to complex, imitating to free writing, technique to art. Since 2013, it has been a mandatory weekly lesson in all primary and middle schools in China.

The art of Chinese writing embodies patience, diligence, breathing, concentration and an appreciation of the natural beauty of rhythm. It teaches Chinese values of harmony and the aesthetic spirit.

“Thick accumulation” can be illustrated in the way students study extremely hard for the national Gaokao examination, and also during tertiary education. This way they accumulate the basic knowledge and skills required in a modern society.

“Thin production” refers to the ability to narrow or focus this accumulated knowledge and skill to find and implement creative solutions in the workplace or elsewhere.

Ways of learning

On the face of it, the emphasis on gradual and steady progress, and on accumulation of basic knowledge and skills, may look like a slow, monotonous and uninspiring process – the origin of those common myths about Chinese learning.

In reality, it boils down to a simple argument: without a critical mass of basic knowledge and skills, there is little to assimilate and integrate for productive creativity.

Of course, there are problems with Chinese learning and education, not least the fierce competitiveness and overemphasis on examinations. But our focus here is simply to show how two basic educational principles underpin Chinese advances in science and technology in a modern knowledge economy.

We believe these principles are transferable and potentially beneficial for policymakers, scholars and learners elsewhere.

Peter Yongqi Gu, Associate Professor, School of Linguistics and Applied Language Studies, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington and Stephen Dobson, Professor and Dean of Education and the Arts, CQUniversity Australia

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Global Indian Diaspora and Australia’s multicultural communities need fair, non-hyphenated, and questioning journalism, packed with on-ground reporting. The Australia Today – with exceptional reporters, columnists, and editors – is doing just that. Sustaining this needs support from wonderful readers like you.

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